Education
May 18, 2021
The Dutch Tulip bubble also occurred during a pandemic. One popular narrative for tulip price behavior blames excitable Dutch merchants who had nothing better to do than sit around in taverns bidding up the price of exotic flowers (global trade was effectively in “lockdown” then)…sound familiar?
BTCUSD closed right at the noted 44000 level today. Big spot! I lean towards the downside following completion of the massive top that has been forming since February. The next downside level of interest is 32000 (or so).
May 5, 2021
Kiwi has traded in a textbook fashion over the last week or so. Resistance at the channel high…hard break of the center line…center line acting as resistance…and finally the lower channel line holding.
April 29, 2021
USDJPY did indeed pull back from 109.00. My near term view is that the drop is a 4th wave within a 5 wave rally from the 4/23 low. Ideal is support is 108.52/55. This is the 38.2% retrace of proposed wave 3 and the 4/20 high.
March 17, 2021
BTCUSD has dropped in 5 waves from the high made over the weekend. The implication is that this rally ends with a lower high before at least one more leg lower. The 2 levels to keep in mind for resistance are the former 4th wave high at 57,341 and the 61.8% retrace at 58,511.
March 3, 2021
GBPUSD completed its 5 wave drop today and focus is on identifying the end of a 3 wave corrective bounce. The ideal zone for the corrective top is 1.4050-1.4100. A small pullback followed by a rally into that zone is what I’m looking for.
March 2, 2021
BTCUSD bounced sharply today with stocks and commodity currencies…still all the same trade. Price could turn down right here, which is VWAP from the high and possible channel resistance. At minimum, risk is well-defined for those looking to position for downside in BTCUSD.
January 26, 2021
daBTCUSD bounced just before 28000 and turned down today at 34888…right at noted VWAP resistance. Resistance registered where it needed to in order to maintain that price has topped and is headed lower. Don’t forget about the 2 bar weekly volume reversal that registered last week.
January 22, 2021
BTCUSD has turned down sharply following last week’s 2 bar weekly volume reversal. If you want to play in this sandbox, then pay attention to 35000 for resistance and 28000 for the next bounce level. The latter level is a spike low and VWAP from the November low. The former level is defined by VWAP from the high and 2021 VWAP.
January 19, 2021
BTCUSD made a 2 bar weekly volume reversal last week. TradeStation historical is limited but this is the 2nd 2 bar weekly volume reversal since 2019. The 2019 signal identified an important top. Bitcoin news mentions have also gone parabolic (see below). This isn’t a surprise but it’s comforting to see the data. In other words, the speculative excess isn’t anecdotal.