Tag: USD/CAD

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 5/19 – Impulsive Action in Commodity FX

AUDUSD has turned up sharply from the line that crosses lows since August 2021. Also, .6828 is the January 2019 low (flash crash low). Price has reached the 20 day average and the line off of the April highs is just above the market. The rally appears in 5 waves too which raises risk of a pullback. Proposed support is the former 4th wave of one less degree at .6950.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 5/3 – Upside SPX Levels of Note

SPX held up after yesterday’s reversal. There are 2 big levels to note for possible resistance…4250 and 4360/90. The latter level seems like a stretch in the near term but FOMC is tomorrow and sentiment is wildly bearish, which provides plenty of fuel for a violent squeeze. Bottom line, I’m thinking higher following yesterday’s reversal, especially after futures held the large volume level during Tuesday’s trade (see below).

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 4/20 – Bonds and USD Reverse

USDJPY didn’t quite make 130 but notice the channel from the 2021 low. 1/2 and full channel extensions are plotted with the channel. The March high was at the 1/2 channel extension. Today’s high was at the full channel extension. Near term focus is on the 1/2 channel extension near 125.30, which was formerly resistance. Near term, watch for resistance near 128.50 (see below). Finally, a volume reversal (on futures) triggered today. This is only the 3rd such reversal since 2014. Those charts are below.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 4/13 – USD Topped Today

DXY printed 100.52 today and then carved a key reversal. In fact, UUP (USD ETF) made a high volume reversal (see below). The combination of the wave count, measured level (recall the 100.59 measurement), upper channel line, and volume reversal make a strong case that the USD topped today.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 4/11 – USDCAD Trade Setup

USDCAD has reached the level noted for resistance. This level is huge. It’s defined by VWAP from the March high, 200 period average on the 4 hour chart, underside of the trendline from the 2021 low, and year open! My ‘guess’ is that price rolls over but I need a response, such as a price and/or volume reversal, in order to short. Stay tuned.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 4/7 – Know this Key DXY Level

The ‘final leg higher’ option is unfolding in DXY. A key zone to pay attention to is 100.39/59. This is a well-defined horiztonal and where wave 5 would equal wave 1 within the sequence from the January low. Also, note that EURUSD has yet to trade beneath its March low. It may very well do so but a non-confirmation is in place until that happens.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 4/6 – Commodity FX Corrections Unfolding

I’m torn on Kiwi given the prospect for a deeper AUDUSD pullback. In any case, continue to be aware of the long term neckline (blue line), which has been resistance and support so far in 2022. The line is about .6890. If we get a decent reaction at that level, then it will be worth taking a shot on the long side with a tight stop.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 4/5 – Commodity FX Due for a Pullback

Today’s post is extremely short as I’ve been having tech issues throughout the day.

Tuesday’s Aussie spike on ‘news’ (RBA) has top written all over it. Price spiked into and reversed from a well-defined level (61.8% retrace of the decline from the 2021 high and former support) following RBA. Perhaps we’ll finally get the pullback into the top side of former trendline resistance (blue line), which is near .7375 now.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 3/30 – Interesting EURUSD Structure into Month End

1.1218/30 remains in focus but I’m wondering if EURUSD is trading within a much more bullish structure. Notice how price has been riding the median line of the presented fork the last 2 days. This suggests that the structure is ‘in play’. So, either price pulls back and finds support on a related parallel…probably near 1.1106 or 1.1060 or EURUSD explodes higher now. If the latter happens, then the top side of the center line becomes proposed support.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 3/28 – Crypto Nearing Important Levels

The triangle scenario described last week is no longer valid in BTCUSD. However, note that price has reached the 200 day average and the upper parallel from the median line of the fork that originates at the April 2021 high is slightly higher…near 49500. Pay close attention to that level for resistance if reached because since the January low registered right at the median line.