News and Analysis

Market Update 4/11 – USDCAD Trade Setup

BTCUSD DAILY

BTCUSD bounced around the noted 42400 level for a few days before getting slammed today.  Focus is lower until 36725, which is daily reversal support and the lower channel support.  42560 or so should be resistance now.

4/6 – BTCUSD never quite made it to 49500 as the 200 day average held firm as resistance.  I am broadly bearish at the moment but will note the 50 day average and center line of the channel from the low as possible support at 42400.  Again, I’m thinking nothing but a bounce here before additional weakness.

NASDAQ FUTURES (NQ) DAILY

NQ continues to sink after reaching our cited resistance zone.  13706/86 is a well-defined zone to pay attention to.  This is the January low and 61.8% retrace of the rally from March.  When/if that level is reached, I’ll reassess.

3/29 – NQ has reached the zone that was noted for possible resistance 3 weeks ago.  The February high has been reached and the underside of former channel support is slightly higher near 15415.  The top of the zone is support from December at 15538.  I’m on alert for a reversal up here.

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AUDUSD 4 HOUR

AUDUSD has remained heavy with absolutely no bounces since topping after RBA last week.  .7375 remains ideal support from the 3/21 and 3/22 lows and the top side of the trendline from the 2021 high.  The coming recovery may only be corrective because the decline is impulsive.  .7540/50 sticks out as eventual resistance.

4/6 – Aussie followed through on post-RBA action and the proposed corrective decline into .7375 or so is well underway.  We might not get a bounce until .7455/70.  I’d love to see the drop from the high in 5 waves before plotting a short entry but watch for resistance now near .7560.

USDCAD 4 HOUR

USDCAD has reached the level noted for resistance.  This level is huge.  It’s defined by VWAP from the March high, 200 period average on the 4 hour chart, underside of the trendline from the 2021 low, and year open!  My ‘guess’ is that price rolls over but I need a response, such as a price and/or volume reversal, in order to short.  Stay tuned.

4/7 – All eyes on 1.2635 or so for USDCAD resistance!  The rally from the 4/5 low is clearly impulsive but the rally could complete a flat correction from the 3/30 low.  Canadian jobs data is out tomorrow so we could get a spike into resistance before lower.  I love ‘news fade’ setups…Aussie on RBA earlier this week is a great example.

USDCNH 4 HOUR

USDCNH sports a possible bullish base since December.  Also, weakness in March is clearly corrective and price turned up from the 61.8% retrace and 200 period average on the 4 hour chart.  I am constructive USDCNH and a break above 6.4107 would set an objective at 6.5176.