News and Analysis

Market Update – Finally a USD Turn?!


The ‘about face’ in USD action today strongly suggests that we’re on the right track insofar as being near term USD bulls.  Regarding EURUSD specifically, the 5 wave rally from the 4/24 low is ‘textbook’ so expectations are for at least a corrective pullback.  The year open at 1.1260 along with parallels just below are likely initial support for a bounce.

7/15 – EURUSD traded 1.1452 today before reversing and closing near the low of the day.  The high is right on the upper parallel of the channel from the March low.  The line off of the September 2018 and March highs also reinforces the area as resistance.  I’m of the mind that today was a high and now wish to trade from the short side.  ECB is tomorrow.  I’ll wait until that’s out of the way before determining entry.


No change to near term USDJPY analysis.  Focus remains on the 25 line near 107.70 and the upper parallel, which intersects where the rally from the June low would consist of 2 equal legs at 108.76.  Note that the year open for USDJPY is 108.75!  Bottom line, 108.70s is significant.

7/14 – USDJPY levels are playing out beautifully.  The median line was support and high today was 107.43.  The rally from 106.65 is in 5 waves so expectations are for a small pullback before another leg higher.  Proposed support is 106.94.  107.70 and 108.74 (2 equal legs up) are possible resistance levels.  BoJ is Wednesday.


AUDUSD is following through on the 4 hour volume reversal noted yesterday.  I’m bearish and there’s no need to wait for a break below .6930 to take action.  Highs from last week at .6993-.7001 should provide resistance now.  Initial downside focus is the top side of the trendline that extends off of the 2018 and December 2019 highs.  This line was support in June and is currently near .6750 (just under the the June low).

7/15 – AUDUSD took out the 7/9 high and once again tested the December high and year open price (daily chart is below with year open plotted).  The red line on this chart is the ‘breakdown’ line near .6930.  Futures made a 4 hour volume reversal today (see 2 and 3 charts down).  This is only the fourth such reversal since 2018.  Reversal in January 2019 and December 2019 were spot on.  The reversal in May failed.


NZDUSD continues to respect the line off of the April 2018 and December 2019 highs.  7 of the last 8 days have touched this line!  Initial downside focus is the lower parallel of the channel from the March low, which intersects the line that crosses highs in March and April near .6440.

v7/13 – NZDUSD is trying to follow through on its volume reversal from last week.  Price could bounce near .6520 (7/7 low and 25 line of channel from the March low) but initial downside focus is the lower parallel near .6405.  Seasonal tendencies also turn down after this week.  A high volume level at .6564 is proposed resistance.