DXY DAILY

Market Update 4/12 – DXY 9 Days Up!

ByJamie Saettele

DXY DAILY

DXY has reached the bottom of the zone cited last week for possible resistance.  The line off of the November 2021 and March highs is right up here along with the well-defined horizontal that goes back to 2015.  Within the sequence from the January low, wave 5 would equal wave 1 slightly higher at 100.59.  Also, DXY is now up 9 days in a row (see below).  The last time that happened was at the March 2020 high!

4/7 – The ‘final leg higher’ option is unfolding in DXY.  A key zone to pay attention to is 100.39/59.  This is a well-defined horiztonal and where wave 5 would equal wave 1 within the sequence from the January low.  Also, note that EURUSD has yet to trade beneath its March low.  It may very well do so but a non-confirmation is in place until that happens.

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DXY DAILY

USDOLLAR DAILY

We haven’t looked at this one in a while but USDOLLAR is pressing against the year long upper wedge resistance.  In fact, the upper wedge line originates at the April 2021 high.  If there is an ’emotional’ blow-off move then price could test the upper parallel from the long term pitchfork near 12534.  Like DXY, USDOLLAR is also up 9 days in a row.

USDSEK 4 HOUR

USDSEK has reached the bottom of the noted zone for resistance at 9.54.  The median line (red line) that has been resistance multiple times over the last year is now near 9.65.  That would be a big move from here but until we see evidence of a turn a move to that level shouldn’t be discounted.

4/7 – The median line (red line) remains key for resistance.  That line is about 9.64 now.  However, also pay attention to 9.54/57.  This zone is defined by the 38.2% retrace of the decline from the March high, 3/28 high, and 2 equal legs up from the March low.  Again, I think that USDSEK holds the key to when the USD starts to broadly decline (notably EURUSD advance).

AUDUSD 4 HOUR

Aussie put in a bullish outside day today, which is kind of annoying because price didn’t yet reach proposed support near .7375.  In any case, continue to pay attention to that level for support but also be aware of .7540/60 for resistance.

4/11 – AUDUSD has remained heavy with absolutely no bounces since topping after RBA last week.  .7375 remains ideal support from the 3/21 and 3/22 lows and the top side of the trendline from the 2021 high.  The coming recovery may only be corrective because the decline is impulsive.  .7540/50 sticks out as eventual resistance.

NZDUSD 4 HOUR

NZDUSD turned up right at channel support, also putting in a bullish outside day.  As such, I ‘like’ Kiwi higher from here but be aware of .6940s resistance.  .6943 is daily reversal resistance and .6946 is the 61.8% retrace.  It’s not shown on this chart but the 50 day average is just under today’s low and exhibits positive slope.  This average has been a decent trend filter in recent months (resistance in January and support in March).

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SPOT SILVER DAILY

Market Update 9/30 – Watch USDCHF for Clues

ByJamie Saettele

Silver turned up sharply today after dipping below the September 2020 low. Support is reinforced by channel support down here as well. Simply, the combination of well-defined support and extreme pessimism (numerous headlines include ‘plunge’) suggest that it’s time to turn bullish. I’m like the long side now. The first test is about 22.88.

USDOLLAR DAILY

Market Update 1/12 – HUGE USD Test

ByJamie Saettele

Make or break time for USDOLLAR! Price closed right at 8 month channel support. IF price breaks below the channel, then the objective is the channel extension which intersects the March-May line and March high at 11929 in early February.

1/11 – Pay attention to the USD indices over the next few days. The big level for USDOLLAR is about 12115. This is the trendline from the May low and September high. A break below would ‘announce’ that the USD trend is lower.

CADJPY 4 HOUR

Market Update 2/21 – Yen Crosses Lower?

ByJamie Saettele

CADJPY is nearing the bottom of the 2022 range. Weakness below the 1/24 low would leave a series of lower highs and lower lows since the January high although 2 legs down from that high is possible support at 89.12. The bigger level is the 161.8% extension, which intersects the lower parallel of the channel from the March 2020 low at 87.55. 90.40/60 is resistance. A zoomed out chart is below.

Market Update 2/16 – U.S. Notes (TLT) Nearing Possible Pivot

Market Update 2/16 – U.S. Notes (TLT) Nearing Possible Pivot

ByScandinavian Capital Markets

TLT has been tanking but is nearing a possible pivot from the center line of the channel from the March high. Daily RSI is 25.5. Magenta dots on the chart below show when RSI has been 25.5 or lower. Also, the 2016 is 143.36. This is an extremely important chart given the ‘inflation trade’ narrative. A bounce in TLT would indicate a pause/pullback in the in the nearly year long ‘inflation trade’.