Market Update 1/18 – USDJPY Lower High?

SPX 4 HOUR

SPX rolled over from noted resistance and definitively broke the trendline from the October low.  The underside of that trendline (magenta line) is now resistance near 4665 if reached.  Price is again approaching the median line of the bearish fork.  The median line nailed the 1/10 low.  If this line is broken then expect accelerated weakness towards the lower parallel which isn’t until 4350 or so.

1/12 – SPX has reached the proposed resistance zone.  In fact, the rally from the low would consist of 2 equal legs at 4754 and today’s high is 4751.  Given the longer term picture (see below), I’m on alert for weakness from the current level.

ETHUSD 4 HOUR

ETHUSD didn’t hold 3200 but did bounce from the 61.8% retrace of the rally from the low.  As such, I’m constructive and looking for another leg higher.  Broad focus is 3585 (trendline and former support).

1/12 – ETHUSD held the noted 3050 level and strength from the low is impulsive.  Price has reached 2022 VWAP (magenta line), which is a good spot for a pullback.  Watch for support near 3212.50.  Former support at 3640 is possible resistance now.  This is the bottom of a large zone that extends up to 3890.

EURUSD DAILY

So much for that EURUSD ‘breakout’!  I was looking for 1.1380s to hold and that level did nothing.  If action since the November low is a bottoming process then support needs to register near the lower parallel of the channel at 1.1300.

USDJPY DAILY

USDJPY spiked above the noted line off of the September and December lows but closed just under the line.  As such, I’m thinking that today’s high is a lower high within a bearish sequence from the 1/4 high.  Focus remains on 112.20/50.

1/13 – USDJPY broke the line off of the September and December lows.  The underside of this line should provide resistance now near 114.70.  Initial downside focus is the mentioned 112.20/50 zone.

GBPUSD 4 HOUR

Cable closed right at the top side of former channel resistance (channel from the 2021 high).  I’m thinking bounce here but heads up for resistance now from the center line of the bullish fork from the December low near 1.3660.  The center line was support in late December and through the first 2 weeks of January.  If price resumes lower now then the lower parallel of the noted fork is in line for support near 1.3540.

AUDUSD 4 HOUR

No change to AUDUSD.  Price is at the noted level for support so I’m thinking bounce.  That said, the decline from 1/13 is impulsive so I’m only looking for a bounce into .7260 (center line of Schiff fork from the December low).

1/17 – Aussie is quickly nearing .7180s, which is support from the lower parallel of the Schiff fork and VWAP from the March 2020 low (thick orange line).  I’m on alert for a reversal near the noted level although .7260 is now proposed resistance.

AUDJPY DAILY

AUDJPY confirmed the wedge on Friday and put in a bearish outside day today.  I’m bearish and looking for weakness to at least the December low at 78.79.  Proposed resistance is 82.60s (see below).

1/10 – AUDJPY is testing the line drawn off of the December lows.  A break below would confirm a wedge from the December low and suggest a return to that level.  This is a make or break level.

AUDJPY HOURLY