BTCUSD reversed off of the VWAP and the median line today! This is huge and sets a line in the sand for BTCUSD and probably crypto and ‘risk’ in general (see the Nasdaq composite and BTCUSD overlay below). IF a screaming rally is going to unfold then it’s from this level. The former low at 32950 is now resistance. Here’s the thing though…IF BTCUSD breaks below today’s low then we’re in crash territory until the lower parallel near 14000.
Today’s Dow move is important because price plummeted from the center line of the Schiff fork that originates at the 2009 low. In simpler terms, this line has been key support and/or resistance for years (note the highlighted areas…zoomed in chart is below). Consider the market in dangerous territory while price is beneath this center line.
Heightened bond and FX volatility (notably JPY) has spilled over to equities. SPX is pressing yearly lows and there is no sign of a hold at this point. Price action since September is a distorted head and shoulders top with a negative sloping neckline…very bearish. The measured objective from the pattern is 3724. Barring a miraculous save, 3724-3856 looks like the next magnet. Recall that we started sounding the alarm on a top last September when price was pressing into the long term upper channel line (see below).
The Nasdaq is holding on for dear life. Price continues to trade around the well-defined trendline that crosses highs over the last 8 years (see zoomed out chart below). Bigger picture, one must acknowledge that trend is sideways at best and possibly down with price below the 200 day average and that average shifting from a flat to a negative slope. Near term, today’s reversal sets up for a squeeze higher with resistance in the 14300-14500 range. A relief rally is needed in order to relieve extremely negative sentiment.
NQ reversed higher from the proposed support zone today. Sentiment is stretched down here too as evidenced by the AA II bull bear spread (see below). Sentiment is stretched just about everywhere actually…bonds…the USD…and equities. So, perhaps the reversal down here in stocks is joined by a reversal higher in bonds and lower in the USD over the next few days…just a thought. Anyway, I’m looking higher in NQ. It’s possible that everything since 2/24 is a massive base but near term focus is on 2022 VWAP near 14500 for now.
USDCAD has reached the level noted for resistance. This level is huge. It’s defined by VWAP from the March high, 200 period average on the 4 hour chart, underside of the trendline from the 2021 low, and year open! My ‘guess’ is that price rolls over but I need a response, such as a price and/or volume reversal, in order to short. Stay tuned.
FXY (Japanese Yen ETF) completed a 2 bar volume reversal today. I’ve highlighted all of the bullish reversals since 2016. All but one of the signals nailed the turn. Signals on the other side were reliable as well. Be aware that this chart plots JPYUSD so bullish signals are bearish USDJPY signals. On the spot chart (see below), 123.15/50 should provide resistance if a tradeable high is in place. The top of this zone is VWAP from the high, which has proved useful so far in identifying resistance. The next levels of interest on the downside are 121.40 and 120.40.
That was a blowoff top in crude oil. Interestingly, resistance came in at the same parallel that nailed the Gulf War high in 1990. I’m not going to get into detail on the near term charts just yet other than noting 97.60s for support and 115.50 for resistance. Also, USO completed a high volume 2 day reversal. This last happened in September 2019 (see below).
NQ broke the channel from the March low today but sharply reversed higher, putting in a high volume reversal in the process (see below chart). Watch the underside of the channel for resistance now near 15750 but the reversal casts doubt on that level as resistance. Proposed support is 15400. If this is a bigger top then both sides probably need to be frustrated…that’s how distribution works!
ETHUSD has broken the line described yesterday (magenta line). This line is resistance if reached near 3640. Price is testing the 200 day average now (not shown) but the more important level is probably VWAP from the May 2021 high at 3050 (see below). Bigger picture, my view is that price drops to 985 or so in a 4th wave.