January 7, 2021

Market Update 1/6 – More Reversal Evidence

50-51 is big for crude. This zone was critical support in 2019. Once the level broke early last year, crude went into a swan dive. As noted 2 days ago, the rally from the April negative print does compose 5 waves. 5 waves up plus a massive market level in the form of former support (turned resistance?) indicates reversal potential.
January 6, 2021

Market Update 1/5/2021 – Bitcoin Warning

Bitcoin! There aren’t enough superlatives to describe the recent rise. That said, pay attention at this level. Yesterday (first trading day of the year), BTCUSD completed a 2 day volume reversal. This means that the price rallied on significant volume and declined on significant volume the very next day. BTCUSD price history on TradeStation starts in August 2011 so this ‘study’ is in no means exhaustive. Still, the only other 2 day volume reversal occurred at the June 2019. Price is also at the top of an extremely steep channel so I’m on alert for something else besides parabolic rally.
November 3, 2020

Market Update 11/3 – All About the USD!

We got the bounce as suspected and Nasdaq futures are approaching proposed resistance near 11415. I’m on alert for a turn lower from that level.
November 1, 2020

Scandex Technical Weekly: 11/1/2020

Another month is in the books and SPX continues to trade ‘heavily’ under the its ‘meridian line’. An inside month formed in October. Recall that September was an outside bearish month (see the close up view below). Of note is XHB (homebuilders), which made a monthly volume reversal in October (see below). Is this one of the last segments of the market to put in a top?
October 26, 2020

Market Update: October 26

I’m treating the area around 11600 as near term bull/bear dividing line for Nasdaq futures. As long as price is below this level, I am looking lower. 10989 is a level to be aware of within the range with broader focus on 10300-10442. This is the 7/24 low and 2 equal legs down from the September high.
September 14, 2020

Market Update – September 14

The most bearish time of the year for equities is now through October 9th. 9/10 – QQQ pushed slightly above the noted 279 before turning down.  The next level of interest is the long term parallel (magenta line) near 257.  The chart with volume studies below highlights some important observations.  First, VWAP from the high was resistance today.  Second, the importance of 237.50 (February high) is magnified by VWAP from the March low.
July 10, 2020

Market Update – July 10

No change to the 7/7 comments and ‘view’ of reversal risk in the Nasdaq. I’m simply pointing out that NQ made another 8 hour volume reversal today.
May 22, 2020

Market Update – May 22

Nasdaq futures and QQQ (weekly QQQ is below) covered their closes from 2/21 on Wednesday and closed beneath those levels today. Mistrust of strength has been misguided but the gap fill and down day today at least presents a bearish risk point (Wednesday’s high).
April 24, 2020

Market Update – April 24

Today may have been a lower high against the 4/17 high. Action since 4/13 has a head and shoulders look to it as well. In short there is no change to looking towards 2616/30 (bottom of the zone is VWAP from the low) in the near term. The chart below shows the current Dow chart with the Dow in 1929. The comparison is anchored with the panic lows. The rallies are similar. If this continues, then price would test the April lows (about 13% lower) before resuming higher. That would be considered the re-test but rest assured that if we did test the April low then most would expect a test of the March low and miss the buying opportunity. The April low in ES is 2424.75 and the 61.8% retrace of the rally from the March low is 2445.50. I think that’s the zone to focus on now.
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