March 10, 2021

Market Update 3/9 – 6 Year USDJPY Trendline

USDJPY nailed resistance and reversed (high today was 109.23). Simply, I am looking lower until roughly 107.00 (the next decision point?). Proposed resistance is now 108.80ish.
March 9, 2021

Market Update: March 8

EURUSD has reached 1.1845 (2 legs down). The 200 day average is about 1.1815. A bounce from either one of these levels wouldn’t be a surprise so watch for resistance now near 1.1950 (median line of short term bearish fork and February low). Another downside level to be aware of is VWAP from the March 2020 low at 1.1742. This is in line with the 11/11 low and lower parallel of the bearish fork. Bottom line, 1.1740s is the next most important downside level and 1.1950 is proposed resistance.
March 5, 2021

Market Update 3/4 – S&P Testing Wedge Barrier

EURUSD broke below the center line of the channel from the March 2020 low and that center line is now proposed resistance if reached along with former support in the 1.2020/60 zone. The next 2 downside levels of interest are 1.1845 and 1.1600. The first level is 2 equal legs down from the high. The lower level is the 1.618 extension and the former 4th wave low (November low).
March 2, 2021

Market Update 3/1 – Well-Defined Level for RBA

BTCUSD bounced sharply today with stocks and commodity currencies…still all the same trade. Price could turn down right here, which is VWAP from the high and possible channel resistance. At minimum, risk is well-defined for those looking to position for downside in BTCUSD.
January 7, 2021

Market Update 1/6 – More Reversal Evidence

50-51 is big for crude. This zone was critical support in 2019. Once the level broke early last year, crude went into a swan dive. As noted 2 days ago, the rally from the April negative print does compose 5 waves. 5 waves up plus a massive market level in the form of former support (turned resistance?) indicates reversal potential.
January 6, 2021

Market Update 1/5/2021 – Bitcoin Warning

Bitcoin! There aren’t enough superlatives to describe the recent rise. That said, pay attention at this level. Yesterday (first trading day of the year), BTCUSD completed a 2 day volume reversal. This means that the price rallied on significant volume and declined on significant volume the very next day. BTCUSD price history on TradeStation starts in August 2011 so this ‘study’ is in no means exhaustive. Still, the only other 2 day volume reversal occurred at the June 2019. Price is also at the top of an extremely steep channel so I’m on alert for something else besides parabolic rally.
November 3, 2020

Market Update 11/3 – All About the USD!

We got the bounce as suspected and Nasdaq futures are approaching proposed resistance near 11415. I’m on alert for a turn lower from that level.
November 1, 2020

Scandex Technical Weekly: 11/1/2020

Another month is in the books and SPX continues to trade ‘heavily’ under the its ‘meridian line’. An inside month formed in October. Recall that September was an outside bearish month (see the close up view below). Of note is XHB (homebuilders), which made a monthly volume reversal in October (see below). Is this one of the last segments of the market to put in a top?
October 26, 2020

Market Update: October 26

I’m treating the area around 11600 as near term bull/bear dividing line for Nasdaq futures. As long as price is below this level, I am looking lower. 10989 is a level to be aware of within the range with broader focus on 10300-10442. This is the 7/24 low and 2 equal legs down from the September high.