As noted, evidence for a low in the S&P is strong. Friday’s low is at the line that crosses the January and February lows and the LONG TERM parallel (see below chart). Also, VWAP from the 2020 low in SPY held last week (see 2 charts down). 4105 is the initial level to pay attention to but 4270s in the index and 426.00s in SPY line up more significant levels…eventually.
AUDUSD has turned up sharply from the line that crosses lows since August 2021. Also, .6828 is the January 2019 low (flash crash low). Price has reached the 20 day average and the line off of the April highs is just above the market. The rally appears in 5 waves too which raises risk of a pullback. Proposed support is the former 4th wave of one less degree at .6950.
TLT completed a 2 week high volume reversal last week. Over the last 10 years, this signal has occurred right at or very close to a major turn. Also, a 1 week volume reversal triggered last week (see below). This is just the second 1 week bullish reversal since the inception of the ETF. The other one marked the 2007 low.
EURAUD sports a 2 month bottoming pattern (similar to the 2 month topping process in AUDJPY). Price is nearing the 3/15 high at 1.5329 which could produce a reaction lower. ‘Ideal’ support for a long entry is 1.4940s, which includes former resistance and the top side of the line off of the 3/15 and 4/25 highs.
DIA (Dow ETF) levels are extremely well-defined. A massive top is completed and the biggest level on this chart is 297.50 (or so). A drop to that level would represent a 20% drop from the all-time high. In the grand scheme of things, that’s fairly normal. Possible trading levels before then include 313.50 (VWAP from the March 2020 low) and 332.70 for resistance (former support). The full view of the structure from the 2020 low is shown below.
SPX took out the 2/24 low (invasion low) before reversing higher to finish with a high volume reversal (see below). The low was right at the median line of the bearish fork too. Sentiment across virtually all major asset classes is insanely extreme (USD, bonds, and equities). The median line tag and reversal from under the February low is a perfect setup for a squeeze higher. If however price breaks below the median line then the market would be in crash territory.
GBPUSD tagged the topside of the trendline from the 2015 high. Again, this line crosses 3 yearly highs. Daily RSI is below 19. Prior readings this low over the last 20 years are shown with magenta dots on this chart and the following 2 charts. The combination of the level and the RSI reading have me on reversal watch. Stay tuned.
The Dow traded to its best level since 2/10 today before plummeting all day and forming a massive bearish outside day in the process. Scroll out and you’ll see that price has been pressing against a flat 200 day average as well. I’m wondering if this is a larger trend change. It’s safe to say that the broader trend has shifted from up to sideways. If price breaks the long term center line then the trend will be considered down with focus on 29800 or so. The full picture from the 2009 low is below.
NZDUSD levels are actually better defined than AUDUSD in my opinion for support. Price has already reached 2 equal legs down at .6746 and the well-defined .6700 is just below. This is defended by the trendline from the lows and 2022 VWAP at .6719. Bottom line, .6700/50 is a big zone and well-defined for support. I’m looking for Kiwi to turn up and begin another leg higher within the bull cycle from the January low.
That was a blowoff top in crude oil. Interestingly, resistance came in at the same parallel that nailed the Gulf War high in 1990. I’m not going to get into detail on the near term charts just yet other than noting 97.60s for support and 115.50 for resistance. Also, USO completed a high volume 2 day reversal. This last happened in September 2019 (see below).