November 9, 2020
DXY continues to trade at/just above a major long term level. Nothing has changed. This is support until broken (daily closing basis at least). The UUP (see below) warns that last week’s drop is a trap. The red bars on the UUP chart show when price closed at a 52 week low with volume at least as high as it was last week (1.8 x the 13 week average). Every instance except one (highlighted in yellow) was a capitulation low. Stay tuned.
Jamie Saettele November 9, 2020November 4, 2020
EURUSD traded into resistance as early polls closed, tanked to its lowest since 7/24 and then ended the day unchanged. So 2020. Bottom line, resistance was hit so I favor the short side. Weakness below 1.1700 (most recent high volume level and support in August and October) would warrant taking a shot.
Jamie Saettele November 4, 2020November 4, 2020
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Scandinavian Capital Markets November 4, 2020October 27, 2020
In case you haven’t heard, there are elections (president, congress, senate) in the U.S. next Tuesday, November 3rd. Do markets, notably the U.S. Dollar, tend to trade a certain way before and after U.S. presidential elections? In an attempt to answer this question, I plotted DXY in the 3 months leading up to and one month after every election since 1972 (blue for a Democratic win and Red for a Republican win). Each time series is compared to current DXY (in black). The vertical black line indicates election day. You’ll find these charts at the end of this report.
Jamie Saettele October 27, 2020October 22, 2020
Bonds have been the big mover leading up to the U.S. election. TLT is under the 200 day average for the first time since December 2018. The next critical level to pay attention to is 153-154. This is the bottom of a short term channel, the June low, and the long term upper parallel from the channel that originates at the 2007 low (magenta line). The upper parallel nailed tops in 2012, 2015, and 2016 and the low in June. A long term chart is below. Expect the level to act as support BUT a break below would indicate a major behavior change in TLT (and bonds generally).
Jamie Saettele October 22, 2020October 13, 2020
Gold has turned down from the 200 period average on the 4 hour chart, short term trendline, and 2011 high. Notice the action around the 2011 high over the last few months…gold remembers! Focus remains lower. 1760 appears critical for longer term support. This is the May high, near the 200 day average, and is a parallel that crosses highs and lows since August 2019.
Jamie Saettele October 13, 2020October 8, 2020
The initial announcement of Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis caused a knee jerk reaction in the stock market. Is there more volatility to come?
Scandinavian Capital Markets October 8, 2020September 30, 2020
Gold traded into proposed resistance at 1908 today and immediately pulled back. I am of the view that price resumes lower from the current level towards the lower parallel near 1750. Failure to stay below today’s low would risk strength into the upper parallel of the bearish channel near 1940.
Jamie Saettele September 30, 2020September 28, 2020
To determine if gold is a bubble, we need to understand the demand for gold, what an asset bubble is and the current renewed interest in gold.
Scandinavian Capital Markets September 28, 2020