News and Analysis

Market Update 2/17 – Watch out for 1920 in Gold


If the gold breakout is going to face problems then it probably happens near 1920.  This is just above the June high, short term channel resistance, and the 61.8% retrace of the decline from the 2020 high.  It’s also the 2011 high (see below).  In the meantime, 1877 and 1854 are proposed supports.

2/15 – Gold has pulled back to support defined by the center line from the channel that originates at the September low.  A dip under today’s low to test 1842 isn’t out of the question.  The top side of former trendline resistance needs to hold as support in order to maintain a bullish stance and look towards 1920.



Keep in mind that silver is still nowhere near breaking out.  This should be concerning for precious metal bulls in general because the silver/gold ratio tends to rally during ‘real’ metal bull markets.  The breakout test isn’t until about 25.  23.10/20 is proposed support.

2/15 – Silver has also pulled back to support.  The level is defined by the February 7th high and 2022 VWAP.  It’s important to note that silver never broke out so the bullish setup isn’t nearly as ‘strong’ as the gold setup.  As such, this support needs to hold otherwise silver risks heading towards range lows.


USDJPY has followed through on the downside and near term focus is on noted daily reversal support at 113.93.  This intersects with the line off of the November and January lows.  It’s also the median line from the fork that originates at the January high.

2/15 – USDJPY reversed lower from the noted 61.8% retrace today.  The bounce is a ‘textbook’ 3 wave advance so focus is lower for a drop under 115.01 at minimum.  Daily reversal support (1/24 close) at 113.93 is a level to keep in mind.


NZDUSD is testing former support at .6700.  A break above opens up the next important level near .6860.  Proposed support is .6640/50.  If price breaks above the median line before pulling back to this level then watch the top side of the median line for support.

2/19 – Kiwi did pull back and found support at .6590.  Now, a series of higher lows and highs is in place off of a major level.  That’s a great way to start a larger uptrend!  The downward sloping line that originates at the March 2021 low (blue line) intersects with the line off of recent lows at .6645.  Watch that for support.