News and Analysis

Market Update 2/16 – AUDUSD Threatens Breakout


The USDOLLAR bounce appears over as price rolled over near the 25 line (half way between median line and upper parallel) of the bearish fork that originates at the December high.  The trendline from the September low remains the key technical pivot near 12145.  Weakness below there should lead to acceleration of USD weakness.  Levels of interest at that point would be 12070s and eventually 11959.

2/10 – USDOLLAR held the trendline that originates at the September low today.  A break of this line is what I’m waiting for to signal ‘all clear’ on the downside for the USD.


I’m thinking that EURUSD action since 2/4 is a flat pattern that completed on Monday.  The implication is that a 3rd or C wave is underway within a 3 or 5 wave bullish sequence from the January low.  1.1642 is 2 equal legs up from the low and therefore a soft target.  1.1345 is proposed support.  This is just above 2022 VWAP.


GBPUSD also appears to have completed a flat pattern although price didn’t quite reach the noted 1.3450/60.  Either way, focus is higher towards 2 equal legs from the December low at 1.3946.  Watch for support near 1.3550 (2022 VWAP).  The center line of the channel is about 1.3660 and remains possible resistance.  The line has been resistance twice this month.  A break over the median line would likely lead to ‘median line acceleration’.

2/14 – The expanded flat appears to be playing out.  A drop under 1.3490 would satisfy the minimum requirement for wave c.  Proposed support remains 1.3450/60.


AUDUSD is pressing against the trendline from the October high.  The center line of the short term bullish fork is also in the vicinity.  A break above the trendline opens up the January high at .7314 and possibly the confluence of the upper parallel from the bullish fork and trendline from February 2021 near .7440.

2/10 – There is absolutely no change to AUDUSD analysis although I’ll admit that price is taking a roundabout path to get to proposed support at .7130.  Upside focus is .7370, which is the 1/15 high and 200 day average (see daily chart below).


EURAUD reversed sharply early in the month from the line that originates at the October 2020 high.  If this cross remains in a bullish phase, then the lower parallel needs to hold near 1.5690.