BTCUSD held up Monday following the weekend damage so I’m looking towards 56000 or so…then reassess. 56000s include former support, the underside of former trendline support, and VWAP from the high.
12/5 – That 11/10 reversal nailed the high. From high to low, BTCUSD dropped 39%. The low over the weekend was at the center line from the channel that originates at the 2015 low. 53000 has been a key level since September and I’m watching for resistance at that level. With the low at the center line however, watch for support at 45000-46000. An aggressive bearish target on a break of the center line is 23000. The longer term picture is below.
USDCAD broke short term trendline support, which is the trigger I’ve been waiting for to trigger a short. Resistance should be the underside of the line near 1.2780. The 61.8% retrace of the rally from 10/21 is 1.2500, which is in line with the September low. Consider that a soft target for now.
USDCHF appears to be putting the finishing touches on a corrective rally from the 11/30 low. .9373/91 is ideal resistance. This zone includes the former 4th wave high and 61.8% retrace of the decline from 11/24.
11/29 – USDCHF reversed sharply lower after trading just above the noted trendline from the 2019 high. .9187 is a possible bounce level, especially given the possibility of 5 waves down from the high (see below).
AUDJPY low on Friday was at the top side of former trendline resistance and the September low. This is a good spot for a bounce (this pertains to ‘risk’ in general). 82.00/30 is well-defined for resistance. Watch for support at 79.40/50.