Market Update 3/1 – Well-Defined Level for RBA

NASDAQ FUTURES (NQ) DAILY

NQ futures broke a well-defined wedge last week before bouncing sharply today.  The underside of the wedge is about 13353.  Watch that for resistance.  If that fails to provide resistance, then former support at 13468-13516.75 (see below) is a zone to pay attention to.

NASDAQ FUTURES (NQ) HOURLY

SPOT SILVER 4 HOUR

Silver made high at 28.33 last week and is just above a possible ‘trap door’ (breakdown) level.  A break under 26.14 would lead to accelerated downside.  This level is defined by the line off of the November and January lows and center line of the channel from the 2/1 high.

2/22 – Pay attention to 28.39/52 in spot silver.  This is where the rally from the February low would consist of 2 equal waves and it’s also the 61.8% retrace of the decline from the February high.  Recall that the drop from that high is in 5 waves so expectations are for a lower high and the noted zone is ‘ideal’ for that high.

BTCUSD (BITCOIN) HOURLY

BTCUSD bounced sharply today with stocks and commodity currencies…still all the same trade.  Price could turn down right here, which is VWAP from the high and possible channel resistance.  At minimum, risk is well-defined for those looking to position for downside in BTCUSD.

2/9 – If I look at Bitcoin as nothing more than a liquid asset and apply a channel to price history then 53k (give or take) is a level to pay attention to.  The level is defined by the 75 line of the channel from the January 2015 low.  As an aside, the Bitcoin bottom then was 1/15/2014…one day before the SNB let the floor go on EURCHF.  I bought BTCUSD that day but then sold in May 2017.  Worst exit ever?  The fact that I think about that now is instructive from a timing standpoint.  Anyway, the 25 line was support (highlighted) from May to October last year.  As per median line symmetry, the 75 line is expected resistance…which is 53,000.

EURUSD 4 HOUR

EURUSD is right back on the center line of the channel from the March low.  This was support in early February.  I am expecting a break this time but maybe not before a bounce into 1.2090-1.2100.  This level is defined by the underside of the line off of the 2/5 and 2/17 lows.  There are several VWAPs there as well (not shown today).  A possible downside target is where the decline from the January high would consist of 2 equal legs; at 1.1845.

2/28 – EURUSD is testing the noted 1.2080 level.  In the event of a bounce, proposed resistance is 1.2140s.  This level is defined by 2021 VWAP and VWAP from last week’s high.

GBPUSD HOURLY

I remain of the mind that Cable is headed towards 1.3730 or so but the path to get there might be choppy.  A drop under 1.3888 would make the decline from the high in 5 waves.  The implication then would be that GBPUSD bounces before realizing another down leg.  1.3830/40 is a possible support zone for GBPUSD now.  This is where proposed wave 5 would equal proposed wave 1 and is also the 2/17 and 2/18 lows.

2/28 – GBPUSD downside focus remains 1.3730 or so.  Resistance now should be the underside of former February trendline support.  That line is about 1.4050.

AUDUSD HOURLY

The AUDUSD bounce may fail before the noted .7887.  .7800/15 is well-defined from where the rally would consist of 2 equal legs, highs in January and February, and the 38.2% retrace of the decline from the high.  It’s also VWAP from the high now (see below).  RBA is tonight and I’ll be on alert for a spike and failure into .7800/15.

2/28 – AUDUSD followed through on its daily reversal last week and ended up with a weekly volume reversal.  The only other weekly volume reversal occurred at the January 2004 high.  Price is bouncing from the 50 day average in early week trading.  Proposed resistance is .7887, which is the 61.8% retrace of the decline and the center line of the Schiff fork from the March low (see below chart).  The next downside level of interest is the lower parallel.  That is currently near .7500.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FUTURES HOURLY