News and Analysis

Market Update 8/4 – Japanese Yen Volume Reversal


Silver tagged the underside of the trendline from the November low today and reversed sharply lower.  The action screams short.  Proposed resistance for entry is 25.75 or so.  Downside focus is the March low of 23.78 followed by daily reversal support (9/24/21 close) at 23.15.


I’m not sure if today is THE low for the next USDOLLAR move higher but it’s probably a low for at least a bounce back to the 61.8% retrace at 11941.  It’s a positive that the 4 hour RSI profile remained bullish throughout the drop (RSI never went below 30).  Broadly speaking, the outside bullish day occurred at a well-defined level (see below).

7/26 – Evidence favors the idea that 7/21 is an important high and that USDOLLAR is headed lower.  The top side of the line from the September high is proposed support along with the 200 day average near 11800.  Watch for resistance at 11953.



The 25 and 75 lines nailed BOTH the high and low today for USDJPY.  I’m willing to buy into the center line near 109.15 given the daily volume reversal today (see futures chart below).  Near term upside focus is the upper channel line near 110.00.

8/3 – We may have a bearish channel from the July high to work with in USDJPY.  Notice how the 25 line was precise resistance on Friday and Monday.  This line intersects former support at 109.53.  That’s proposed resistance now.  The 75 line is a possible bounce level near 108.75.



.7415 continues to provide resistance.  Unfortunately, price spiked through the recent range high today before reversing lower.  Action since the low has taken the form of a small wedge.  A break below the lower wedge barrier would signal that another leg lower is underway and set a measured objective at .7152.  That wedge barrier is about .7345.

8/2 – AUDUSD traded up to .7415 on Friday and turned down sharply.  As noted last week, the 20 day average logic indicates potential for a strong downtrend.  I’ll head into RBA tonight with a bearish view against .7420.  Watch for .7380 resistance (see short term channel below).


NZDUSD reversed right at the 25 line (as suggested) today.  Downside focus is the center line near .6960.  This level intersects the lower parallel from a shorter term bullish fork.  Action at that lower parallel will help determine whether we should expect additional upside/range trading or if we should expect a break to new lows sooner rather than later.

8/3 – .7100 might be in play again for NZDUSD.  The level has been a pivot since December.  It’s also near the 25 line within the channel from the February high.  Since the 75 line was support (twice), we should expect resistance near the 25 line (median line symmetry!).  .7100 is also the 200 day average.