TLT completed a 2 week high volume reversal last week. Over the last 10 years, this signal has occurred right at or very close to a major turn. Also, a 1 week volume reversal triggered last week (see below). This is just the second 1 week bullish reversal since the inception of the ETF. The other one marked the 2007 low.
EURUSD low today was 1.1263. How about that trendline! I can’t think of a better technical combination, a Fibonacci level and long term well-defined trendline, to mark an important turning point. I am bullish against the low. The first hurdle on the upside is the weekly opening price at 1.1446 followed by former support at 1.1525. Support should be 1.1290-1.1300.
So much for the pullback. That said, I hate chasing USDJPY up here (despite being a bull)! The 75 line of the channel from the 2020 low is just above the market. This was resistance in March and July and I’m watching for resistance again. If price does start to pull back, then watch for support between 110.45 and 110.80 (see below). Also, there was a 4 hour volume reversal today. The futures chart below show all the reversals with equivalent volume for the last 3 years (remember that these are charts of JPY/USD so the chart is inverted).
It was pure risk-off in FX today as Yen was the only major that strengthened against the USD. I ‘like’ downside in Yen crosses generally, especially given the volume reversal today (see futures chart below…bullish Yen reversals since 2014 are highlighted). Price action from the April low takes the form of a wedge. The lower wedge barrier is about 109.50. The high volume level from FOMC is now proposed resistance at 110.50.