SPX DAILY

Market Update 4/26 – Volatility Spills Over from FX

Heightened bond and FX volatility (notably JPY) has spilled over to equities. SPX is pressing yearly lows and there is no sign of a hold at this point. Price action since September is a distorted head and shoulders top with a negative sloping neckline…very bearish. The measured objective from the pattern is 3724. Barring a miraculous save, 3724-3856 looks like the next magnet. Recall that we started sounding the alarm on a top last September when price was pressing into the long term upper channel line (see below).

DXY DAILY

Market Update 4/12 – DXY 9 Days Up!

DXY has reached the bottom of the zone cited last week for possible resistance. The line off of the November 2021 and March highs is right up here along with the well-defined horizontal that goes back to 2015. Within the sequence from the January low, wave 5 would equal wave 1 slightly higher at 100.59. Also, DXY is now up 9 days in a row (see below). The last time that happened was at the March 2020 high!

USDRUB DAILY

Market Update 2/22 – USDRUB Reverses…Time for a Risk Squeeze?

You may have heard that Russia is in the news. USDRUB reversed sharply lower today after tagging daily reversal resistance (daily high close from March 2020). This level was also resistance in November 2020 (U.S. election). The reversal lower today ‘fits’ with a coming squeeze in equities and a pullback in gold. I’m wondering if the USD also breaks down. The chart below shows USDRUB and DXY since the beginning of the year. Let’s see…

AUDUSD 4 HOUR

Market Update 2/16 – AUDUSD Threatens Breakout

AUDUSD is pressing against the trendline from the October high. The center line of the short term bullish fork is also in the vicinity. A break above the trendline opens up the January high at .7314 and possibly the confluence of the upper parallel from the bullish fork and trendline from February 2021 near .7440.