June 23, 2021

Market Update 6/22 – BTCUSD Reversal and USD FX Nearing Support

BTCUSD reversed higher today from the year open price of 29007. The reversal was accompanied by high volume (J Spike Volume). This is the second such signal since 2018 (note the December 2018 signal which is circled). Given the reversal from the month open, I’m bullish against today’s low. 42000-44000 is proposed resistance again.
June 22, 2021

Market Update 6/21 – Tracking USD Support Slightly Lower

GBPUSD turned up prior to the proposed 1.3740 but 1.4000 remains in line for resistance. Besides being ‘clean’ horizontal resistance, the level is also defined by the 25 line of the Schiff fork from the March 2020 low. This line was support in December and April…so watch for support to turn into resistance.
June 19, 2021

Market Update 6/17 – Yen about to Take Over?

It was pure risk-off in FX today as Yen was the only major that strengthened against the USD. I ‘like’ downside in Yen crosses generally, especially given the volume reversal today (see futures chart below…bullish Yen reversals since 2014 are highlighted). Price action from the April low takes the form of a wedge. The lower wedge barrier is about 109.50. The high volume level from FOMC is now proposed resistance at 110.50.
June 17, 2021

Market Update 6/16 – USD Time

Today’s move in USDOLLAR proves us correct in the assertion that action since the beginning of the year is a bullish base. The top side of the median line is now support near 11767. A pullback is possible from the center line of the channel from the yearly low. That line is near 11848. Strategically, either wait for a pullback to 11767 or a break above 11848 (median line) and then look to buy a pullback into 11848 (or so).
June 15, 2021

Market Update 6/14 – BTCUSD Nearing Resistance

BTCUSD is still playing out in perfect Elliott form as price nears the noted zone of 42000-44000. The rally would consist of 2 equal legs at 42451 and the 38.2% retrace is 43963 (don’t forget about last week’s observation regarding 38.2% retraces in BTCUSD after plunges from record highs). Bottom line, we’re looking for the next high soon.
June 10, 2021

Market Update 6/9 – Extreme Complacency

Daily Bollinger Band width for GBPUSD is extremely low. The reading is towards the lower end of its historical range. Readings this low are shown with magenta dots. Although BB width is not a directional indicator, extremely low readings have occurred before sharp declines. This makes sense since extreme complacency (as indicated by narrow Bollinger Bands) occurs at USD lows.
June 9, 2021

Market Update 6/8 – TLT Breakout (U.S. Bond Yield Breakdown)

TLT gapped higher through the median line today. This is typical price behavior around a median line. Focus is higher towards 148.90 (give or take). Remember, higher TLT means lower rates. This can (not always) correlate with risk aversion and lower Yen crosses in FX. 5/25 – After pulling back from the early April high, TLT found support at the 61.8% retrace of the rally. Price is again at the median line from the channel that originates at the March 2020 high. Markets tend to exhibit heightened volatility around median lines. I’m on the lookout for a surge higher. I’ll address implications for FX and equities if we get a strong TLT (bond) move.
June 8, 2021

Market Update 6/7 – Huge Level in Copper

Copper is at 14+ month trendline support. A break below would indicate a significant behavior change and usher in the largest decline since the rally started in March 2020. The long term picture is below. 5/24 – After trading to an all time high 2 weeks ago, copper put in a weekly reversal candle. Price followed through on the downside last week as well. This raises the specter of a massive failure after the move above the 2011 high. A close up view is below.
June 3, 2021

Market Update 6/2 – BTCUSD Triangle?

BTCUSD may have completed a 4th wave triangle within a 5 wave decline from the April high. The decline channels in perfect Elliott form and proposed wave 4 has traced out a well-defined triangle. If the proposed interpretation is correct, then BTCUSD is lower from the current level (this pattern negates above 40904). 5/19 – BTCUSD tagged the 32000 level (low was 30000) and snapped back but I don’t think this is the low. Notice where the snap back rally stalled…right at the underside of the former channel line (magenta channel). This is the ‘slingshot’ setup that I’m so fond of. If strength resumes then VWAP levels to know for resistance are 44400 (2021 VWAP) and VWAP from the top, which is currently 50000. The ultimate support is 19666, which is the 2017 high and the 25 line of the channel that we’ve been following. Recall that we turned bearish in February at the 75 line because the rally materialized at the 25 line. This is knows as median line symmetry (see daily chart below)!