October 13, 2021

Market Update 10/12 – Watch Copper Here!

Today was important for copper as price reversed lower from well-defined trendline resistance. Simply, if copper is bearish then weakness will accelerate while price remains beneath today’s high. A break above would indicate an important behavior change and suggest that corrective action since May is complete and that another leg up within a longer term bull market is underway.
September 30, 2021

Market Update 9/29 – Huge Levels in DXY and EURUSD

NQ is nearing the trendline from the November low. This is also the center line of the channel from the September low (the upper parallel was resistance so it would be ‘natural’ for price to react to the center line) and the 38.2% retrace of the rally from the May low (14641.50). Bottom line, this is an important test for NQ and a break below would indicate an important behavior change.
September 22, 2021

Market Update 9/21 – USD Levels into FOMC

In my view, USDOLLAR has broken out and is headed to 12130/60 (the next decision point). IF price pulls back (not or later), then the parallel that has been support/resistance since June 2020 (magenta line) is proposed support along with the 50 day average at 11940. That could happen on Wednesday with FOMC, at a later date, or not at all! Bottom line, 11940 is proposed support and I’m looking towards 12130/60.
September 10, 2021

Market Update 9/9 – Turkish Lira Setup

USDTRY put in a key reversal from noted resistance. The combination of technical levels and pattern (possible rounding top) makes for an amazing setup. I am bearish against today’s high.
September 8, 2021

Market Update 9/7 – USD Comeback

USDJPY has been consolidating since late March. This consolidation is taking place following a break above multiyear trendline resistance. The implication is that another leg up will take place. General long term upside focus is the LONG TERM trendline (magenta line) near 117.50. Near term, price is testing short term trendline resistance (see below). A break above would warrant a long position.
September 1, 2021

Market Update 8/31 – Pivot Low in the USD?

USDOLLAR spiked lower on the last day of the month but recovered to finish the day virtually unchanged. Price is RIGHT at 11950. In fact, today’s low was one tick above the April high (former resistance is now support) and just above the 50 day average too. My view is that the USD is still in an uptrend. The question is whether or not the dip within the uptrend is complete. Today’s action (long lower wick into a well-defined level) is a good way to make the next pivot low. Also, 4 hour RSI continues to bottom above 30 (see below). Remember, this is characteristic of a ‘bullish RSI profile’.
August 31, 2021

Market Update 8/30 – USD into Support

USDOLLAR is testing proposed support at 11950. Pretty simple here…price needs to hold this level in order to remain constructive and trade the USD from the long side. A break here would indicate an important behavior change and suggest that a deeper drop is underway…possibly towards 11800 or so.
August 24, 2021

Market Update 8/23 – Possible Equity Index Top Levels

SPY made a volume reversal last week. The red and blue bars on the chart indicate volume reversals at at least 5 year highs/lows. The signal is rare. Proposed resistance levels for ES and NQ futures (see next 2 charts) are about 4500 and 15460.
August 18, 2021

Market Update 8/17 – USD Breakout?

The USDOLLAR pullback bottomed at 11911…just above 11900. Is this a massive breakout? It is until it isn’t (then it would be a failed breakout). Risk is higher until noted otherwise with focus on 12129/60.