August 6, 2021

Market Update 8/5 – Watch USDTRY Up Here

USDTRY has reached the bottom of the proposed resistance zone allow for one more push to test the 61.8% retrace of the decline from the June high. That level is 8.6044. The 50 day average is just below that level. Don’t forget about the contrarian implications from The Economist cover!
August 5, 2021

Market Update 8/4 – Japanese Yen Volume Reversal

he 25 and 75 lines nailed BOTH the high and low today for USDJPY. I’m willing to buy into the center line near 109.15 given the daily volume reversal today (see futures chart below). Near term upside focus is the upper channel line near 110.00.
July 30, 2021

Market Update 7/29 – GBPUSD Reversal Watch

GBPUSD hasn’t quite reached 1.4000 (high today was 1.3982) but the upper parallel was reached. I am on reversal watch in Cable right now…especially given bearish seasonal tendencies over the next few weeks (see below).
July 29, 2021

Market Update 7/28 – Levels for USD Support

7415 has been discussed in these pages for months. That level is now reinforced by the 20 day average and a short term trendline. Also, the rally from the low would consist of 2 equal legs at .7427. If a strong downtrend is underway, then .7415/30 (or so) should provide resistance. The chart below shows price with a rolling 20 day midpoint. Notice how the 20 day midpoint acts as support or resistance during strong trends.
July 27, 2021

Market Update 7/26 – EURUSD Ready to Rip?

EURUSD has been churning near lows for weeks, putting in divergence with RSI on both the daily and 4 hour time frames. The break above the line from the 6/25 high warrants a long position. Watch for 1.1780 support. General focus is the center line and 25 line within the channel from the February high near 1.1930 and 1.2070 (also the 61.8% retrace).
July 22, 2021

Market Update 7/21 – USDOLLAR Reacts at Resistance

USDOLLAR put in a key reversal today after hitting parallel resistance from the pitchfork that originates at the 2017 high. I’m not sure that there is a better example of median line symmetry. Over the last 10 months, highs and lows have registered on parallels equidistant from the median line. With the specter of 5 waves up from the May low, I lean towards USD weakness from the current level.
July 20, 2021

Market Update 7/19 – Big Test for USD Bulls

We got the leg up in USDOLLAR and price has entered the a possible resistance zone. My ‘base case’ is that price does pull back before resuming higher. Keep it general for now regarding USDOLLAR.
July 15, 2021

Market Update 7/14 – Bearish Oil and CAD

Short term waves suggest that crude has put in a lower high. Specifically, a 3 wave rally followed a 5 wave decline from a high. The implication is that another impulsive decline is underway. The March high at 68 is an initial level of interest on the downside. For context, the longer term chart is reproduced below.
July 13, 2021

Market Update 7/12 – USD Correcting Lower

EURUSD held VWAP from the 2020 low (again) so near term focus is higher towards the center line of the channel from the January high, which is about 1.1935. Importantly, notice that the 75 line provided support therefore the 25 line is proposed resistance if reached (as per median line symmetry). The 25 line intersects the 61.8% retrace of the decline from the May high at 1.2081. Watch for support near 1.1825.