September 22, 2021

Market Update 9/21 – USD Levels into FOMC

In my view, USDOLLAR has broken out and is headed to 12130/60 (the next decision point). IF price pulls back (not or later), then the parallel that has been support/resistance since June 2020 (magenta line) is proposed support along with the 50 day average at 11940. That could happen on Wednesday with FOMC, at a later date, or not at all! Bottom line, 11940 is proposed support and I’m looking towards 12130/60.
September 10, 2021

Market Update 9/9 – Turkish Lira Setup

USDTRY put in a key reversal from noted resistance. The combination of technical levels and pattern (possible rounding top) makes for an amazing setup. I am bearish against today’s high.
September 8, 2021

Market Update 9/7 – USD Comeback

USDJPY has been consolidating since late March. This consolidation is taking place following a break above multiyear trendline resistance. The implication is that another leg up will take place. General long term upside focus is the LONG TERM trendline (magenta line) near 117.50. Near term, price is testing short term trendline resistance (see below). A break above would warrant a long position.
September 1, 2021

Market Update 8/31 – Pivot Low in the USD?

USDOLLAR spiked lower on the last day of the month but recovered to finish the day virtually unchanged. Price is RIGHT at 11950. In fact, today’s low was one tick above the April high (former resistance is now support) and just above the 50 day average too. My view is that the USD is still in an uptrend. The question is whether or not the dip within the uptrend is complete. Today’s action (long lower wick into a well-defined level) is a good way to make the next pivot low. Also, 4 hour RSI continues to bottom above 30 (see below). Remember, this is characteristic of a ‘bullish RSI profile’.
August 31, 2021

Market Update 8/30 – USD into Support

USDOLLAR is testing proposed support at 11950. Pretty simple here…price needs to hold this level in order to remain constructive and trade the USD from the long side. A break here would indicate an important behavior change and suggest that a deeper drop is underway…possibly towards 11800 or so.
August 24, 2021

Market Update 8/23 – Possible Equity Index Top Levels

SPY made a volume reversal last week. The red and blue bars on the chart indicate volume reversals at at least 5 year highs/lows. The signal is rare. Proposed resistance levels for ES and NQ futures (see next 2 charts) are about 4500 and 15460.
August 18, 2021

Market Update 8/17 – USD Breakout?

The USDOLLAR pullback bottomed at 11911…just above 11900. Is this a massive breakout? It is until it isn’t (then it would be a failed breakout). Risk is higher until noted otherwise with focus on 12129/60.
August 12, 2021

Market Update 8/11 – How Big of a USD Pullback?

Right on cue! USDOLLAR reversed lower from parallel resistance (again) today. I’m not sure how important the high is but short term focus is lower for now. The first level to pay attention to will be 11900.
August 10, 2021

Market Update 8/9 – Silver Crashes – What Now?

The silver crash bounced from a median line today. While the action may feel like capitulation, I’m watching for resistance from the line that crosses lows in June and July (red line). That line is about 24.20. Very near term, price could bounce near 23.05 (see below). The 61.8% retrace of the rally from March 2020 is 18.71. Keep that level in mind for major support if reached.