Education
September 1, 2021
USDOLLAR spiked lower on the last day of the month but recovered to finish the day virtually unchanged. Price is RIGHT at 11950. In fact, today’s low was one tick above the April high (former resistance is now support) and just above the 50 day average too. My view is that the USD is still in an uptrend. The question is whether or not the dip within the uptrend is complete. Today’s action (long lower wick into a well-defined level) is a good way to make the next pivot low. Also, 4 hour RSI continues to bottom above 30 (see below). Remember, this is characteristic of a ‘bullish RSI profile’.
August 31, 2021
USDOLLAR is testing proposed support at 11950. Pretty simple here…price needs to hold this level in order to remain constructive and trade the USD from the long side. A break here would indicate an important behavior change and suggest that a deeper drop is underway…possibly towards 11800 or so.
August 24, 2021
SPY made a volume reversal last week. The red and blue bars on the chart indicate volume reversals at at least 5 year highs/lows. The signal is rare. Proposed resistance levels for ES and NQ futures (see next 2 charts) are about 4500 and 15460.
August 18, 2021
The USDOLLAR pullback bottomed at 11911…just above 11900. Is this a massive breakout? It is until it isn’t (then it would be a failed breakout). Risk is higher until noted otherwise with focus on 12129/60.
August 12, 2021
Right on cue! USDOLLAR reversed lower from parallel resistance (again) today. I’m not sure how important the high is but short term focus is lower for now. The first level to pay attention to will be 11900.
August 10, 2021
The silver crash bounced from a median line today. While the action may feel like capitulation, I’m watching for resistance from the line that crosses lows in June and July (red line). That line is about 24.20. Very near term, price could bounce near 23.05 (see below). The 61.8% retrace of the rally from March 2020 is 18.71. Keep that level in mind for major support if reached.
August 6, 2021
USDTRY has reached the bottom of the proposed resistance zone allow for one more push to test the 61.8% retrace of the decline from the June high. That level is 8.6044. The 50 day average is just below that level. Don’t forget about the contrarian implications from The Economist cover!
August 5, 2021
he 25 and 75 lines nailed BOTH the high and low today for USDJPY. I’m willing to buy into the center line near 109.15 given the daily volume reversal today (see futures chart below). Near term upside focus is the upper channel line near 110.00.
July 30, 2021
GBPUSD hasn’t quite reached 1.4000 (high today was 1.3982) but the upper parallel was reached. I am on reversal watch in Cable right now…especially given bearish seasonal tendencies over the next few weeks (see below).