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May 26, 2021

Market Update 5/25 – CTAs Chasing USD Shorts Again

Not surprisingly, CTAs are chasing USD shorts again. Of course, this tends to happen just before a turn (then they chase the USD higher).
May 25, 2021

Market Update 5/24 – NOKJPY Idea

NOKJPY is an interesting chart. Price has rolled over from the trendline that connects the 2007 and 2013 highs. If a bigger down move is underway, then I’d expect resistance from the underside of the red trendline near 13.15. A longer term chart is below.
May 18, 2021

Market Update 5/17 – BTCUSD and Tulips

The Dutch Tulip bubble also occurred during a pandemic. One popular narrative for tulip price behavior blames excitable Dutch merchants who had nothing better to do than sit around in taverns bidding up the price of exotic flowers (global trade was effectively in “lockdown” then)…sound familiar? BTCUSD closed right at the noted 44000 level today. Big spot! I lean towards the downside following completion of the massive top that has been forming since February. The next downside level of interest is 32000 (or so).
May 12, 2021

Market Update 5/11 – Watch the Nikkei

The Nikkei reached the lower parallel of the Schiff fork mentioned 3 weeks ago. The level is also support from March (3/5 and 3/24 lows). Huge level! A break below would complete a topping process that has been underway since 2/16 (descending triangle). Note that this possible topping pattern has taken place at the upper parallel of the channel from the 2009 low (see monthly chart below).
May 7, 2021

Market Update 5/6 – USDOLLAR NFP Reversal Warning

A print under 11745 in USDOLLAR will complete 3 waves down from the 5/3 high and give way to another leg up…at least that’s what I’m thinking. Reminder, NFP is tomorrow!
May 5, 2021

Market Update 5/4 – NZDUSD Tags Key Level

Kiwi has traded in a textbook fashion over the last week or so. Resistance at the channel high…hard break of the center line…center line acting as resistance…and finally the lower channel line holding.
May 4, 2021

Market Update 5/3 – USDJPY Channel Still Nailing Turns

DXY turned sharply higher on Friday but gave back a good portion of those gains today. The rally counts in 5 waves (impulsive) which suggests at least one more leg up while price remains above Friday’s high. 90.79 is proposed support if price slips a bit lower.
May 3, 2021

Market Update 5/2 – Monthly TLT Buy Signal

TLT completed a 2 bar monthly volume reversal in April. This is the 3rd bullish monthly signal ever. The first 2 (blue bars) nailed lows in August 2003 and July 2007.
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