June 3, 2021

Market Update 6/2 – BTCUSD Triangle?

BTCUSD may have completed a 4th wave triangle within a 5 wave decline from the April high. The decline channels in perfect Elliott form and proposed wave 4 has traced out a well-defined triangle. If the proposed interpretation is correct, then BTCUSD is lower from the current level (this pattern negates above 40904). 5/19 – BTCUSD tagged the 32000 level (low was 30000) and snapped back but I don’t think this is the low. Notice where the snap back rally stalled…right at the underside of the former channel line (magenta channel). This is the ‘slingshot’ setup that I’m so fond of. If strength resumes then VWAP levels to know for resistance are 44400 (2021 VWAP) and VWAP from the top, which is currently 50000. The ultimate support is 19666, which is the 2017 high and the 25 line of the channel that we’ve been following. Recall that we turned bearish in February at the 75 line because the rally materialized at the 25 line. This is knows as median line symmetry (see daily chart below)!
June 2, 2021

Market Update 6/1 – British Pound Reversal!

Pound futures made a daily volume reversal today. The signals shown are at least one year high/lows with at least 1.5 x the 20 day average volume. Those are some timely signals. Price is testing the center line of the channel from the April low (see spot chart below). In the event of a bounce, resistance is 1.4210. Near term downside focus is the lower parallel, currently near 1.4005.
May 27, 2021

Market Update 5/26 – Extreme USD Sentiment Indicates Reversal Risk

The demise of the dollar? Reserve currencies in the era of ‘going big’. BITCOIN AND THE DEATH OF THE US DOLLAR. Markets oscillate between extreme optimism and extreme pessimism. The above headlines suggest that the USD is at/near a bearish sentiment extreme…and therefore a price bottom.
May 26, 2021

Market Update 5/25 – CTAs Chasing USD Shorts Again

Not surprisingly, CTAs are chasing USD shorts again. Of course, this tends to happen just before a turn (then they chase the USD higher).
May 25, 2021

Market Update 5/24 – NOKJPY Idea

NOKJPY is an interesting chart. Price has rolled over from the trendline that connects the 2007 and 2013 highs. If a bigger down move is underway, then I’d expect resistance from the underside of the red trendline near 13.15. A longer term chart is below.
May 18, 2021

Market Update 5/17 – BTCUSD and Tulips

The Dutch Tulip bubble also occurred during a pandemic. One popular narrative for tulip price behavior blames excitable Dutch merchants who had nothing better to do than sit around in taverns bidding up the price of exotic flowers (global trade was effectively in “lockdown” then)…sound familiar? BTCUSD closed right at the noted 44000 level today. Big spot! I lean towards the downside following completion of the massive top that has been forming since February. The next downside level of interest is 32000 (or so).
May 12, 2021

Market Update 5/11 – Watch the Nikkei

The Nikkei reached the lower parallel of the Schiff fork mentioned 3 weeks ago. The level is also support from March (3/5 and 3/24 lows). Huge level! A break below would complete a topping process that has been underway since 2/16 (descending triangle). Note that this possible topping pattern has taken place at the upper parallel of the channel from the 2009 low (see monthly chart below).
May 7, 2021

Market Update 5/6 – USDOLLAR NFP Reversal Warning

A print under 11745 in USDOLLAR will complete 3 waves down from the 5/3 high and give way to another leg up…at least that’s what I’m thinking. Reminder, NFP is tomorrow!
May 5, 2021

Market Update 5/4 – NZDUSD Tags Key Level

Kiwi has traded in a textbook fashion over the last week or so. Resistance at the channel high…hard break of the center line…center line acting as resistance…and finally the lower channel line holding.