News and Analysis

USDJPY Breaks Key Trendline


USDOLLAR has broken the channel so watch for resistance from the underside of the channel near 12115.  There will be bounces along the way of course but broad focus is towards the noted 11929….maybe in 3 weeks.

1/12 – Make or break time for USDOLLAR!  Price closed right at 8 month channel support.  IF price breaks below the channel, then the objective is the channel extension which intersects the March-May line and March high at 11929 in early February


USDJPY broke the line off of the September and December lows.  The underside of this line should provide resistance now near 114.70.  Initial downside focus is the mentioned 112.20/50 zone.

1/12 – Today’s USDJPY drop cements the surge above 115.50 as a false breakout and the square root progression method described last week nailed the turn!  The upper parallel from the channel off of the 2020 low (red line) is now resistance near 115.10 (also the year open).  Downside focus is 112.20/50.  This is the trendline from the 2021 low and the November low.


USDCAD low today was 1.2453 (right on the trendline).  Given the response at the trendline, I favor a bounce into at least 1.2550s (median line) and maybe 1.2630s.  A bounce into the latter level would present an ideal short into the underside of the neckline (bold red line).

1/11 – I’m unhappy with how I’ve treated USDCAD so far in 2022.  I came in to the year bearish but was waiting for a move back into 1.2760/90 to short.  Basically, I got too cute.  As it is now, USDCAD has completed a head and shoulders top so focus is lower towards 1.2450 (trendline) and possibly the October low at 1.2288.  The latter level is near the measured objective from the head and shoulders.  Resistance should be 1.2630/50 (high volume level and week open).


USDNOK reversed right at the noted level today.  I favor the upside as long as today’s low holds.

12/28 – USDNOK has traded lower as suspected and downside focus is the 61.8% retrace of the rally from October at 8.6312.  This is also near VWAP from the April low and the lower parallel from the fork that originates at that low.