News and Analysis

Market Update 1/3 – Early Year Commodity FX Focus

GBPUSD 4 HOUR

Cable came in a bit today and I’m ‘hoping’ for price to pull back a but more so that we get a shot at buying near 1.3370.  The level is reinforced by the lower parallel from a short term bullish fork.

12/29 – GBPUSD has a well-defined floor (see text below) heading into 2022.  Early in the new year, focus on support near 1.3370 with resistance near 1.3600 (see below chart).  A break above the channel opens up 1.4000.

AUDUSD 4 HOUR

AUDUSD has pulled back from just shy of the noted .7290.  I want to see support at/near .7160/70 in order to maintain a constructive view.  Failure to do so would leave me neutral at best.

12/27 – AUDUSD continues to make progress within what I believe is a new bullish sequence.  As such, focus is on identifying support to buy.  .7170 sticks out as the ideal level.  This has been an important horizontal level since the September low.  The price intersects short term channel support at the end of this week (and year).  Maybe we get a big buying opportunity right at the beginning of 2022!  .7290 or so is still proposed resistance for a pullback.

NZDUSD HOURLY

NZDUSD levels are playing out perfectly.  Price has pulled back from .6860 (high was .6857) and focus for support remains .6735/55.  An Elliott interpretation is shown in which the rally is an impulse followed by an expanded flat.

12/15 – NZDUSD low today was .6701.  My view is that a low is in place for NZDUSD although pay close attention to .6860, which is the October low and line that extends off of highs in 2019 and 2020.  This line was support in August and September and needs to be taken out in order to indicate an important behavior change.  Watch for .6735/55 support.

USDCAD 4 HOUR

The last day of 2021 and first day of 2022 result in more or less a wash for USDCAD.  However, it’s important that the recent low occurred near the median line from a bearish fork.  The implication is that the upper parallel is resistance if reached.  That line intersects the well-defined 1.2820/30 zone towards the end of the week.

12/27 – Last week, USDCAD finally spiked through 1.2952 and reversed.  In fact, the level is also defined by the December 2019 low.  There is also the 25 line, which was resistance for several important highs in 2020.  In other words, this is a great spot for a big top.  Near term focus for resistance is 1.2850 (see below).

AUDJPY DAILY

If I’m wrong about AUDUSD, then AUDJPY could be a great short.  Price reversed sharply lower today from near the 61.8% retrace of the decline from the October high.  Strength from 12/3 is a possible bearish wedge as well.  Very near term, the drop from today appears impulsive (not shown) and may extend a bit lower before a rally attempt.  83.40 is proposed resistance.