Education
April 14, 2022
It’s clear that the USD won’t roll over until/unless rates stop going up. TLT is the long bond ETF, which moves inversely to rates. So, a turn higher in TLT means a turn lower in rates. This could happen soon because TLT is closing in on a massive level defined by 2 legs down from the August 2020 high (using this high rather than the COVID spike high…the August high is the daily and weekly closing high) at 119.94. It’s also the 25 line within the channel from the 2007 low. This line nailed the 2013 and 2018 lows. Finally, the decline channels. If we do get a reversal then there should be a USDJPY play.
April 20, 2021
The sharp USD drop on Monday makes me neutral at best for now. I had wanted to see USDOLLAR hold the median line from the multiyear structure in order to stay constructive (see below). That said, DXY has reached VWAP from the January low and USDOLLAR has reached the 3/18 low. The 61.8% retrace for USDOLLAR is slightly lower at 11705. Keep an eye on these levels for possible support.
April 15, 2021
I was wrong to think that the USDOLLAR pullback was complete last week but the long cited 11795 level has been reached. This is a decision point…plain and simple. The level is defined by the early February high and median line of the structure that originates at the 2017 high. The drop also channels in a corrective manner. Bottom line, price needs to turn up now in order to remain constructive on a swing basis.
March 25, 2021
I love this AUDJPY short setup. Price has broken below the trendline from the November low. The underside of that line is now proposed resistance at 83.65/90. The 2/26 low is a bounce level at 81.98. Downside is the lower parallel from the bearish fork, which is significant (probably a 78 handle).
March 24, 2021
The break above the median line in USDOLLAR is significant! The top side of this line should provide support now near 11810. The September low at 11867 is possible resistance for a pullback/pause but general focus is on the parallel that was resistance in Q4 2020 (then reassess). That line is about 12030. The long term view is shown below for context.
March 10, 2021
USDJPY nailed resistance and reversed (high today was 109.23). Simply, I am looking lower until roughly 107.00 (the next decision point?). Proposed resistance is now 108.80ish.
March 9, 2021
USDJPY is trading just above the July 2020 high and 61.8% retrace of the decline from the March 2020 high. A huge test looms near 109.20, which is the confluence of trendline resistance from the 2015 high and the bullish fork that originates at the November low. The median line from that fork is now possible support near 106.80. A close up view is below.
March 4, 2021
A well-defined base has formed in USDOLLAR since mid-February. Zooming into price action since the 2/25 low reveals an impulsive advance followed by a drop and today’s bounce. I’m of the mind that the drop and bounce compose waves A and B of a 3 wave pullback. Ideal support for the end of the pullback is 11634/51.