January 28, 2021

Market Update 1/27 – USD Breakout!?

USDOLLAR (quarter each of EUR, GBP, JPY, and AUD) has broken above the trendline that originates at the 11/12 high. The top side of that line is now proposed support near 11684. Upside focus is the 12/21 high at 11837. The level is reinforced by the median line from the fork that originates at the January 2017 high. A longer term chart is shown below for context.
January 8, 2021

Market Update: January 7

USDOLLAR continues to hold the May 2015 low. The level is also defined by a parallel that is equidistant from the parallel that was resistance in September and November (magenta lines) when measured from the median line. This is an example of symmetry that we often see in median line analysis. I am looking towards the median line, about 11840, as long as the low holds. A short term structure is shown below that is in play and worth following. 11650 is possible support.
January 7, 2021

Market Update 1/6 – More Reversal Evidence

50-51 is big for crude. This zone was critical support in 2019. Once the level broke early last year, crude went into a swan dive. As noted 2 days ago, the rally from the April negative print does compose 5 waves. 5 waves up plus a massive market level in the form of former support (turned resistance?) indicates reversal potential.
January 5, 2021

Market Update: 1/4/2021 – The Most Important Update of the Year?

Today’s USDOLLAR low…11635. Price reversed sharply higher after low print. UUP, the USD ETF, made a high volume reversal today. The only other volume reversal on the first day of the year was in 2017, which was a high. This is only the 4th bullish reversal since inception of the ETF. The previous 3 worked. Those charts are below.
December 17, 2020

Market Update: December 17

old pulled back to 1819 before resuming higher. The next level of interest is 1921/30. This is the 2011 high, 2 legs up from the low, and a slope confluence (short term bullish upper parallel and medium term bearish upper parallel).
December 15, 2020

Market Update: December 14

Given the tag of a long term Fibonacci level in copper, I’m keeping a close eye on the near term picture. 3.45 is a level to know over the next day. This is the center line of the channel from the March low. A break below would indicate a near term behavior change and shift focus to the lower parallel. That is currently about 3.25. The line increases about .0050 a day.
December 2, 2020

Market Update: December 1

Copper is trading at its best level since March 2013 and has rallied 7 of the last 8 months. Be aware of the 61.8% retrace of the decline from the 2011 high at 3.6130 for possible resistance. Considering that ‘everything’ is going up against the USD, this level could prove important from a multi-asset perspective.
November 30, 2020

Market Update 11/30/2020 – USD Reversal!

USDOLLAR reversed higher today after undercutting the September low. Importantly, price reversed at the median line…just as it did in September. Divergence with RSI attends the low, as it often does at important turns. Today was also a bullish engulfing pattern. This occurs when price opens below the prior close and closes above the prior open.
November 23, 2020

Market Update: November 23

Gold tagged proposed resistance on Friday and dumped today…beautiful. Price is quickly approaching the long held support near 1780. This level is an important parallel and the lower channel line from the bearish channel off of the August high. I’ll be paying close attention to 1780 for reversal evidence.