Action in PMs is interesting following today’s turns higher in gold and silver. Silver turned up from beneath the early March low but gold never broke the early March low. This non-confirmation is typical at turns. I’m watching gold with a closer eye right now due to the trendline from the January high (the 2021 trendline). A break above would indicate a behavior change and shift focus to the center line of the channel from the August 2020 high near 1780.
I maintain that the next important decision point for USDOLLAR is 12010/30 but USDOLLAR tagged the 200 day average today and put in a doji candle (not perfect but close enough). Respect potential for a pullback. 11795 is key support. A shallow pullback would test 11850 or so (see 4 hour chart below).
3/24 – USDOLLAR is trading at that September low of 11867 so a pause in the rally is possible. Again, if that happens, then 11810 should provide support. The 200 day average in USDOLLAR is slightly higher. EURUSD is just under its 200 day average. DXY and USDSEK are both ticks from their 200 day averages as well. My point is that we could get some back and fill before the next ‘swing’. My view at this point is that the next swing will be towards a stronger dollar. That view is based primarily on the median line break in USDOLLAR.
USDJPY continues to soar. I felt compelled to use ‘soar’ so maybe we’re near an inflection point. The wave count as presented shows waves 3-5 in relation to wave 1 by 1.618. This is a common relationship. 111.22 is daily reversal resistance. That intersects with the line that crosses highs in January and March. I’m focused on that price for a high…
USDCAD has turned down and focus for support remains on the mentioned 1.2487. This level is reinforced by the 61.8% retrace at 1.2473. The full Schiff fork since the March high is shown in the chart below. The level for proposed support is near the 75 line from that fork.
3/30 – USDCAD tested the median line from the Schiff fork off of the March 2020 high today. This is also the 50 day average, which has been resistance since late January. 2021 VWAP is also nearby (see futures chart below). This is a good spot for a pullback. In that event, proposed support is 1.2487 (3/18 reversal day close).