USDOLLAR is trading at that September low of 11867 so a pause in the rally is possible. Again, if that happens, then 11810 should provide support. The 200 day average in USDOLLAR is slightly higher. EURUSD is just under its 200 day average. DXY and USDSEK are both ticks from their 200 day averages as well. My point is that we could get some back and fill before the next ‘swing’. My view at this point is that the next swing will be towards a stronger dollar. That view is based primarily on the median line break in USDOLLAR.
3/23 – The break above the median line in USDOLLAR is significant! The top side of this line should provide support now near 11810. The September low at 11867 is possible resistance for a pullback/pause but general focus is on the parallel that was resistance in Q4 2020 (then reassess). That line is about 12030. The long term view is shown below for context.
AUDUSD is nearing the February low of .7564. If price bounces from the obvious horizontal level then the median line from the short term bearish channel is the first level to watch for resistance near .7635 followed by the 25 line .7700. The first downside objective is .7464, which is both the 12/21 low and 2 equal legs down from the high.
I love this AUDJPY short setup. Price has broken below the trendline from the November low. The underside of that line is now proposed resistance at 83.65/90. The 2/26 low is a bounce level at 81.98. Downside is the lower parallel from the bearish fork, which is significant (probably a 78 handle).
There is also a short setup in NZDJPY. Interestingly, this setup is similar to AUDUSD in that there are 2 possible resistance levels from the median line and 25 line. For NZDJPY, that’s 76.39 and 77.11. Downside (for now) is favored into 73.65-74.00.
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