USDOLLAR finally broke above the upper parallel from the Schiff fork off of the March high. The top side of this line should now provide support near 12010. The next upside level of interest is the March low at 12129. This level intersects corrective channel resistance on Wednesday.
9/17 – USDOLLAR failed yet again at the upper parallel from the Schiff fork off of the March high. Pay attention to 11940, which is 2 legs down from the 9/10 high and the 61.8% retrace of the rally from the 9/1 low, for support. This is also near the 8/19 low and top side of the line that crosses highs in August (magenta line).
AUDUSD finally broke the channel from the June 15th low. The underside of the former channel support should now provide resistance near .7265. The next downside level of interest is the 6/10 high at .7064. This level intersects the channel extension line over the next few days.
9/20 – No change to AUDUSD, which still needs to break below the lower parallel from the 3+ month channel in order to confirm a trend change. The lower parallel is still about .7250. As is the case with EURUSD, AUDUSD (futures…see below) has also been trading around and is currently just below VWAP from the high. This reinforces the idea that if the move is lower, then it’s lower from the current level.
Kiwi broke below the trendline that originates at the 5/15 low. The underside of this line should provide resistance now near .6700. The next downside level of interest is the line off of the 6/30 and 8/20 lows near .6550 although .6370/80 looks like a magnet. This is the former 4th wave support shelf (6/15 low) and VWAP from the March low and 2020 VWAP (see futures chart below).
USDCNH has turned up from near the center line of the channel from the 2014 low. Large rallies have developed following dips below this line in recent years (highlighted). The center line of the fork from the September 2019 high is initial resistance near 6.86. More important resistance is probably the 25 line of that fork near 6.95.
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