News and Analysis

Market Update – September 21


The Dow is testing critical support from the June high.  This level has been support since 8/20.  A break below would complete a head and shoulders top that’s been forming since early June.  The measured objective would be 25853.


USDSEK took out 8.8050 but was unable to sustain the breakout.  Price has pulled back to the top side of channel resistance from the March high.  If the move is higher, then USDSEK should hold this level.  I also like that the 200 period average on the 4 hour chart is just below the current level.

9/15 – USDSEK dipped to 8.6844 on on 9/10 before turning up.  I’m viewing that low as a ‘higher low’ within the bullish cycle from the 9/1 low.  Price closed slightly above channel resistance from the March high today.  Strength above 8.8050 would complete a head and shoulders bottom and set an objective at 9.0150.


EURUSD continues to churn around the upper parallel from the short term bearish fork.  If the move is lower, then price should turn down now.  This sentiment is reinforced by the the fact that price is testing VWAP from the high (see below).

9/17 – EURUSD took out 1.1750, got bears (me) excited, and then reversed ALL post FOMC losses to finish the day back to the FOMC spike high.  Price has traded sideways since 7/31, nearly 2 months, and it’s frustrating.  The action is similar to the topping formation in early 2018, which lasted 3 months.  Hopefully, this range does not persist for another 6 weeks but it’s a possibility to be aware of.  A close up view is below.



No change to AUDUSD, which still needs to break below the lower parallel from the 3+ month channel in order to confirm a trend change.  The lower parallel is still about .7250.  As is the case with EURUSD, AUDUSD (futures…see below) has also been trading around and is currently just below VWAP from the high.  This reinforces the idea that if the move is lower, then it’s lower from the current level.

9/16 – AUDUSD continues to bang against the center line of the channel from the 6/15 low.  Action since the 9/9 low is overlapping, brutal, and clearly corrective.  Below .7250 would now constitute a bearish break of the channel from the 6/15 low and shift focus to the full channel extension, which intersects the key .7064 level in the middle of next week.