News and Analysis

Market Update 3/22 – Commodity FX Breaks Out

EURUSD 4 HOUR

EURUSD action since the low ‘fits’ within a Schiff fork.  As such, it’s appropriate to hold a constructive view against today’s low.  A breakout occurs above the trendline that originates at the 2/10 high near 1.1060.  Watch for support at 1.1007.  The first upside level of interest on a break above the noted trendline would be 1.1218/30 (2 legs up and month open).

GBPUSD 4 HOUR

GBPUSD has already followed through on last week’s reversal.  This is somewhat frustrating because we didn’t get a chance to buy proposed 1.3080/90 support.  In any case, support now should be 1.3194-1.3210.  The big test on the upside (near term at least) is 1.3360.  This is the January low and 200 period average on the 4 hour chart.

3/21 – GBPUSD made a weekly reversal last week.  Signals for the last 10 years are shown on the chart and most (almost all) of the signals indicated important turns.  Also, seasonal tendencies are now bullish (see below).  Near term (2 charts down), the rally from the low consists of 5 waves with wave 5 as an ending diagonal.  The implication is that GBPUSD pulls back to 1.3080/90 before surging higher in a 3rd or C wave within a larger bullish cycle from the low.

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AUDUSD DAILY

AUDUSD broke out today so focus is on .7555.  This is the October high and upper parallel of the bullish fork that we’ve been following for several months.  If price overshoots then .7620 is huge.  This is the 61.8% retrace and a level that’s been a key pivot for the last year.  The top side of former trendline resistance (blue line) is now proposed support near .7400.

3/21 – AUDUSD is testing noted trendline resistance.  VWAP from the 2021 high is just above as well.  In other words, this is a significant level so a break above would be…significant!  Still, resistance is resistance until broken so respect downside at this juncture.  The median line is possible support near .7320.

NZDUSD DAILY

The NZDUSD low was indeed 3/15 and price has now broken above the key neckline.  This line (upward sloping blue line) has been key support and resistance since August so the move above is significant and viewed with a great deal of confidence.  For this reason, I like the Kiwi setup better than the AUDUSD setup.  .6890 should be support if reached.  The upside level of interest is the line off of highs in 2021 (red line) near .7050.

3/15 – NZDUSD may have also bottomed today.  Like Aussie, the Kiwi decline channels in a corrective manner.  Price also held the 2/10 high at .6733.  Short term channel resistance is about .6830.  I’ll be looking to trade a breakout above that level if it occurs.