Market Update – Big Seasonality Shift Now

DXY WEEKLY SEASONALITY

Seasonal tendencies are now bullish-sideways for DXY (and bearish-sideways for EURUSD) through mid-August.  The biggest shift in seasonal tendencies however is in the commodity currency complex.  AUDUSD and NZDUSD enter their most bearish period of the year starting now.  USDCAD is in its most bullish period of the year.  Nasdaq seasonal tendencies are bearish through August 14th.  These charts are shown below.

AUDUSD WEEKLY SEASONALITY

NZDUSD WEEKLY SEASONALITY

USDCAD WEEKLY SEASONALITY

NASDAQ COMPOSITE WEEKLY SEASONALITY

USDSEK DAILY

Pay attention to USDSEK and specifically the line off of the 2014 and 2018 lows.  That line intersects the center line of the channel from the March high early this week (see 4 hour chart below for short term channel).  5 waves down are visible from the March high too.  The combination of pattern and a well-defined level indicate reversal risk for USDSEK and the USD in general.

USDSEK 4 HOUR

GBPUSD 4 HOUR

GBPUSD has held the 7/14 low so far so I remain constructive.  Again, the hold at VWAPS is significant (see futures chart below) but price is still under 2020 VWAP (bold line on below chart) so Cable is by no means out of the woods.  Watch for support now near 1.2535.

7/14 – British Pound futures pulled back to VWAPs off of the June high and low.  The level is also the 200 period average on the 4 hour chart (spot is below) and more or less the breakout level from the short term head and shoulders bottom.  I like GBPUSD higher as long as price is above today’s low.  Near term support and resistance levels are 1.2510 and 1.2618.

BRITISH POUND FUTURES 4 HOUR

GBPCAD 4 HOUR

USDCAD (not shown) is trying to break above channel resistance from the March high and I remain constructive GBPUSD so I thought that it would be interesting to look at GBPCAD.  I did…and it is interesting!  A nearly 2 month head and shoulders bottom may be in the works and price held the trendline from the August 2019 low.  The neckline for a breakout is 1.7175 but I’m constructive while above 1.6940.  There is a short term trendline near 1.7120 early in the week that is worth monitoring for a breakout.