Market Update 4/19 – USD Dumps – What Now?

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX FUTURES DAILY

The sharp USD drop on Monday makes me neutral at best for now.  I had wanted to see USDOLLAR hold the median line from the multiyear structure in order to stay constructive (see below).  That said, DXY has reached VWAP from the January low and USDOLLAR has reached the 3/18 low.  The 61.8% retrace for USDOLLAR is slightly lower at 11705.  Keep an eye on these levels for possible support.

USDOLLAR DAILY

EURO FUTURES DAILY

Euro futures are also into 2021 VWAP and VWAP from the January high.  This is nothing more than a simple observation and recognition that the current level is possible resistance.  Lows from December and January are just above near 1.2060 as well (see below).

EURUSD 4 HOUR

GBPUSD DAILY

Cable rocketed higher today.  The move was unexpected from my vantage point.  That said, price is into a well-defined zone for possible resistance.  The zone is defined by the median line from the Schiff fork that originates at the March 2020 low, the underside of the trendline from that same low, the 61.8% retrace of the decline from the 2/24 high, and highs from late February / early March.  The top of the zone is 1.4022.  I’m on reversal alert into that level.

USDJPY 4 HOUR

USDJPY took out support from March today and the drop consists of 2 equal waves.  Still, ‘better’ resistance looks like the 38.2% retrace at 107.77.  This level is reinforced by trendline support as well.  Eventual resistance is probably 109.75-110.00.

GBPJPY 4 HOUR

Recall that GBPJPY turned sharply down from just under long term resistance earlier this month (see longer term chart below).  The drop appears impulsive so I lean towards price forming a lower high.  The best spot for that lower high is 151.63/85.  This is daily reversal resistance and the 61.8% retrace of the drop.

GBPJPY DAILY