Market Update 4/20 – Risk Reversing

S&P 500 FUTURES (ES) DAILY

ES is down 2 days in a row (what!?).  The first big level to know is 3959/79.  This zone is defined by highs from February and March along with the 50 day average.

4/15 – ES has reached the line that we’ve been waiting for.  In fact, price closed the day right at the line.  It’s tempting to short here but we need ‘something’ to suggest that a top is in place.  A key reversal (or high volume reversal) would be ideal.  Wait and see.

CRUDE OIL FUTURES 4 HOUR

Crude tanked today in what I’m viewing as the beginning of wave C within an A-B-C decline from the March high.  Weakness from the March high would consist of 2 equal waves near the January high at 53.93.  Low 59.00s is a possible bounce level.

4/18 – Crude has reversed from the bottom of the noted zone for resistance.  My view is that a corrective rally from the March low is complete.

AUDUSD DAILY

AUDUSD reversed sharply lower today after coming within pips of the 61.8% retrace of the drop from the February high and early January high.  Near term downside focus is .7620.  Proposed resistance is .7750.

NZDUSD WEEKLY

NZDUSD high today was right at weekly reversal resistance (close of the high week from February).  Also recall that the February high was right at the median line of a nearly 4 decade structure (see below).  As such, today’s high might be a lower high within a bearish sequence from the February high.  Near term focus is on .7050.

NZDUSD WEEKLY

USDCAD DAILY

USDCAD has broken above the trendline from the late January high.  The top side of that line is now proposed support near 1.2560.  The trendline from the 3/31/2020 high is possible resistance near 1.2665.  A break above that line opens up significant upside towards the 200 day average (currently about 1.2950).

GBPJPY 4 HOUR

GBPJPY reversed off of the noted 61.8% retrace so a lower high may be in place within a bearish sequence from the April high.  Proposed resistance for a short entry is 151.10.  Follow the bearish fork that originates at the 3/18 high.  GBPJPY is an extremely bearish position as long as price respects this structure.

4/19 – Recall that GBPJPY turned sharply down from just under long term resistance earlier this month (see longer term chart below).  The drop appears impulsive so I lean towards price forming a lower high.  The best spot for that lower high is 151.63/85.  This is daily reversal resistance and the 61.8% retrace of the drop.

CADJPY 4 HOUR

CADJPY is starting to break down after topping at the top of the channel that originates at the March 2020 low.  Notice the 75 line within the fork.  This line was support on Monday so watch for resistance there now.  That line is about 86.30.  Downside is favored as long as price is below 86.90 (today’s high).  Initial downside focus is 84.70s.