October 8, 2021

Market Update 10/7 – GBPJPY Nearing Key Level

AUDUSD sports a head and shoulders bottom since 9/20. Price is trading right at the neckline now and proposed support is about .7280 (median line). The h&s objective is .7460 but be aware of .7360 for resistance. This zone is defined by the 61.8% retrace of the drop from September, the trendline from May, and 2 equal legs up from the September low.
September 15, 2021

Market Update 9/14 – Bearish British Pound Setup

Cable put in a BIG reversal today. I’m not sure what’s going on from a pattern perspective but today’s reversal was accompanied by high volume. The chart below shows high volume (1 day) reversals in futures. Those are some good signals! Also, note that 2021 VWAP was resistance (2 charts down). ‘Levels wise’, price might bounce from near 1.3775. Watch for resistance near 1.3445.
August 19, 2021

Market Update 8/18 – A BIG GBPJPY Setup

GBPJPY did indeed roll over from the 50 day average and price is testing the well-defined trendline from the March 2020 low. A massive head and shoulders pattern is evident and the target on a break would be near 140. Watch for resistance near 151.80 (see 4 hour chart below).
August 6, 2021

Market Update 8/5 – Watch USDTRY Up Here

USDTRY has reached the bottom of the proposed resistance zone allow for one more push to test the 61.8% retrace of the decline from the June high. That level is 8.6044. The 50 day average is just below that level. Don’t forget about the contrarian implications from The Economist cover!
July 30, 2021

Market Update 7/29 – GBPUSD Reversal Watch

GBPUSD hasn’t quite reached 1.4000 (high today was 1.3982) but the upper parallel was reached. I am on reversal watch in Cable right now…especially given bearish seasonal tendencies over the next few weeks (see below).
July 29, 2021

Market Update 7/28 – Levels for USD Support

7415 has been discussed in these pages for months. That level is now reinforced by the 20 day average and a short term trendline. Also, the rally from the low would consist of 2 equal legs at .7427. If a strong downtrend is underway, then .7415/30 (or so) should provide resistance. The chart below shows price with a rolling 20 day midpoint. Notice how the 20 day midpoint acts as support or resistance during strong trends.
July 21, 2021

Market Update 7/20 – Reversals in Yen Crosses

Yen crosses reversed higher today. Expanding on the implications from the Nikkei bear trap, GBPJPY tagged the 3/24 low today before reversing higher. Price also held trendline support. I’m constructive towards 150.74-151.31 (former lows).
May 11, 2021

Market Update 5/10 – GBP Crosses Reach Important Levels

GBPUSD has soared over the last 2 trading days. Today’s break above the well-defined 1.4000 could propel price on its next leg up within the long term bull move but there is consideration for resistance at the current level. Daily reversal resistance is 1.4140 (2/24 close) and the underside of the trendline from the March 2020 low is slightly higher (red line). Let’s see what happens over the next few days.
April 21, 2021

Market Update 4/20 – Risk Reversing

AUDUSD reversed sharply lower today after coming within pips of the 61.8% retrace of the drop from the February high and early January high. Near term downside focus is .7620. Proposed resistance is .7750.