News and Analysis

Market Update 10/7 – GBPJPY Nearing Key Level


***My biggest focus heading into NFP is 1.1470-1.1500 in EURUSD.  That level is huge and we could get a spike low on news (NFP).  See yesterday’s post to view the EURUSD chart.***

AUDUSD sports a head and shoulders bottom since 9/20.  Price is trading right at the neckline now and proposed support is about .7280 (median line).  The h&s objective is .7460 but be aware of .7360 for resistance.  This zone is defined by the 61.8% retrace of the drop from September, the trendline from May, and 2 equal legs up from the September low.


AUDJPY has broken above the center line of the channel that originates at the August low.  This is an important development because the center line had provided resistance for the last few weeks.  82 is pullback resistance but upside focus is 82.80-83.00.  This zone is defined by the 61.8% retrace of the decline from May and 2 equal legs up from the August low.  Support should be 81.20.  Channel resistance is slightly above this zone as well.

9/27 – The AUDJPY rally is also unfolding in an impulsive manner.  Ideal resistance is slightly higher near 81.15.  As is the case with EURJPY (and Yen FX in general it seems), I’m ‘thinking’ pullback and will keep an eye on the near term pattern for the next buying opportunity.


Keep an eye on GBPJPY, which is nearing a short term trendline at about 152.60.  A break above would complete a 2+ month bottoming pattern and possibly launch another leg up within a longer term bullish structure (see below).  There is a lot to like about the longer term bullish potential, including the 200 day average hold and former parallel resistance providing support (blue parallel).