Market Update 4/29 – EURJPY Top?

COPPER FUTURES DAILY

Copper put in a daily reversal candle today after tagging the August 2011 high.  The ATH is slightly higher at 4.6495.  Again, price is testing the underside of the trendline that originates at the 2001 low (long term chart is below)!  Sentiment is ‘frothy’ as indicated by the following headline; Copper Surges Toward $10,000 as Bulls Bet on Global Rebound

As I’ve noted in these pages before, strong language in headlines such as ‘surge’ (or plummet on the other side) indicate extreme sentiment and therefore risk of a price extreme.

COPPER FUTURES WEEKLY

USDJPY HOURLY

USDJPY has not yet reached proposed resistance at 109.60/75 but the rally is in 5 waves.  Also, today’s high is at the same level as highs in March (magenta line).  Finally, VWAP from the Yen low (USDJPY high) has been reached (see futures chart below).  I favor a pullback (at least) into 108.15/40s.

4/28 – USDJPY did indeed pull back from 109.00.  My near term view is that the drop is a 4th wave within a 5 wave rally from the 4/23 low.  Ideal is support is 108.52/55.  This is the 38.2% retrace of proposed wave 3 and the 4/20 high.

JAPANESE YEN FUTURES HOURLY

NZDUSD 4 HOUR

NZDUSD reversed and I favor weakness into the noted .7122 as long as price is below today’s high.  The center line at .7195 is a possible bounce level.

4/28 – NZDUSD is into the noted level for a possible top (wave 5 takes the form of an ending diagonal).  The upper channel line is about .7280.  I’m on alert for a reversal and if such evidence arises then I’ll plot a short entry and target the line that crosses the April lows.  That line intersects the 4th wave low at .7122 on 5/5.

USDTRY 4 HOUR

There is no change to USDTRY analysis other than noting that the 61.8% retrace of the drop from this week’s high is proposed resistance at 8.3490.  Downside focus remains the line off of the February and March lows which is near the 200 day average at 7.6150.

4/26 – USDTRY poked above the March high today before reversing sharply lower.  The high is right at daily reversal resistance (the close of the high day…this is a great example of daily reversal resistance).  The week open is proposed resistance for a short entry at 8.4070.  Near term downside focus is the line off of the February and March lows.  That line is currently near the 200 day average at 7.5950.

EURJPY WEEKLY

EURJPY closed right at 132.00 today.  This is HUGE.  The level is defined by the underside of the trendline from the 2012 low and the trendline from the 2008 high!  If you look at a 4 hour chart, you’ll see a 4 hour reversal candle.  This occurred during the active U.S. session so perhaps a top is in place?  The big short trigger remains a break of the upward sloping trendline (see red line on 4 hour chart below) but if price drops in a clear 5 waves from today’s high then I’ll plot an entry.  Stay tuned.

4/27 – EURJPY has reached the underside of the line off of the 2012 and 2016 lows.  This is also the line that extends off of highs since January 2020.  The line off of the 2008 and 2014 highs (magenta line) is just above the market…at about 132.00.  131.89 is also where the rally from the May low would equal 61.8% of the 2016-2018 rally.  This is interesting because action since the 2014 high may be a triangle and alternate legs within triangles often relate by 61.8%.  Bottom line, now to 132.00 is a zone for a top.

EURJPY 4 HOUR