As noted, evidence for a low in the S&P is strong. Friday’s low is at the line that crosses the January and February lows and the LONG TERM parallel (see below chart). Also, VWAP from the 2020 low in SPY held last week (see 2 charts down). 4105 is the initial level to pay attention to but 4270s in the index and 426.00s in SPY line up more significant levels…eventually.
Violent reversal indeed. I’m of the mind that this rally has legs given the massive 1.0500 figure and extraordinarily bearish sentiment. Upside focus is 1.0840 or so, which is the underside of the trendline from the 2017 low and median line of the bearish fork. Support is 1.0570/90 (see below).
GBPUSD is nearing the 61.8% retrace of the rally from the 2020 low at 1.2495. The top side of the trendline that originates at the 2015 high (blue line) is just below this level near 1.2415. The next 3 charts highlight when daily RSI is below 21 over the last 20 years. All instances led to at least interim lows EXCEPT during the financial crisis. So, unless this is the financial crisis, we should be on the lookout for a reversal.
The Dow traded to its best level since 2/10 today before plummeting all day and forming a massive bearish outside day in the process. Scroll out and you’ll see that price has been pressing against a flat 200 day average as well. I’m wondering if this is a larger trend change. It’s safe to say that the broader trend has shifted from up to sideways. If price breaks the long term center line then the trend will be considered down with focus on 29800 or so. The full picture from the 2009 low is below.
It’s clear that the USD won’t roll over until/unless rates stop going up. TLT is the long bond ETF, which moves inversely to rates. So, a turn higher in TLT means a turn lower in rates. This could happen soon because TLT is closing in on a massive level defined by 2 legs down from the August 2020 high (using this high rather than the COVID spike high…the August high is the daily and weekly closing high) at 119.94. It’s also the 25 line within the channel from the 2007 low. This line nailed the 2013 and 2018 lows. Finally, the decline channels. If we do get a reversal then there should be a USDJPY play.
DXY printed 100.52 today and then carved a key reversal. In fact, UUP (USD ETF) made a high volume reversal (see below). The combination of the wave count, measured level (recall the 100.59 measurement), upper channel line, and volume reversal make a strong case that the USD topped today.
The ‘final leg higher’ option is unfolding in DXY. A key zone to pay attention to is 100.39/59. This is a well-defined horiztonal and where wave 5 would equal wave 1 within the sequence from the January low. Also, note that EURUSD has yet to trade beneath its March low. It may very well do so but a non-confirmation is in place until that happens.
EURUSD appears to be completing an A-B-C decline from the 1.1185 high. The decline would consist of 2 equal legs at 1.1017 and the 61.8% retrace of the latest leg up is 1.1038. The lower parallel from the short term bullish fork is in line with these levels. Bottom line, look slightly lower before the next leg up gets underway.
1.1218/30 remains in focus but I’m wondering if EURUSD is trading within a much more bullish structure. Notice how price has been riding the median line of the presented fork the last 2 days. This suggests that the structure is ‘in play’. So, either price pulls back and finds support on a related parallel…probably near 1.1106 or 1.1060 or EURUSD explodes higher now. If the latter happens, then the top side of the center line becomes proposed support.