October 28, 2021

Market Update 10/27 – BTCUSD Warning Equities?

BTCUSD is off 13% since the top last week. If price drops under the short term lower channel line near 56830 then weakness will be considered impulsive and ‘waterfall’ weakness would be on the table. Watch for resistance near 61850. The weekly chart is shown below. This looks ‘toppy’ to me. Yes, ‘toppy’ is an official technical term. Former trendline support has provided resistance on the way up, a doji candle formed last week, and the rally failed after taking out the prior high. Seems bearish. Finally, is BTCUSD trying to tell equities something (see 2 charts down)
October 26, 2021

Market Update 10/25 – Gold Breakout

Gold broke above trendline resistance and the 200 day average today. The top side of the trendline (blue) is now proposed support near 1790. Upside focus is the line off of the August 2020 and June high. That’s about 1840.
October 22, 2021

Market Update 10/21 – How Big a USD Bounce?

USDOLLAR turned up from corrective channel support. Again, my ‘view’ is that the buck has rolled over so I’ll be paying close attention to sentiment in the coming days. For example, strong USD forecasts would suggests that it’s time to short the USD. Price wise, pay attention to 12020s and 12060s for resistance.
October 15, 2021

Market Update 10/14 – 6 Year High in CADJPY

CADJPY traded to a 6 year high today (highest since December 2015). High 91.00s has been a precise pivot since June 2013 and RSI is in rare territory. The chart below shows instances since late 2014 when RSI has been as high as it is today (above 80). Each instances has been within days of an important price peak. I’m not willing to fade this until I see reversal evidence…but be ready!
October 14, 2021

Market Update 10/13 – Bullish Silver

Silver has broken above and established above the 25 line so that line is now proposed support near 22.78. The inverse head and shoulders objective is 24.87, which is also the September high. 23.97 is pullback resistance. From a bigger picture perspective, SLV made a weekly volume reversal at the low 2 weeks ago (see below). Finally, silver has turned up from a 8 month channel and the bottom year+ range and sentiment is downright brutal as evidenced by articles such as EXCLUSIVE Banks prepare to scrap LME gold and silver contracts, sources say
October 7, 2021

Market Update 10/6 – USDNOK Trade Idea

Silver is bullish. The rally from the low is impulsive. The question is whether or not the correction is complete. Either price pulls back to 21.90-22.10 or price breaks above the 75 line (parallel just above price) and the top side of that line then provides support. A zoomed in version and possible path is below.
October 6, 2021

Market Update 10/5 – Has the USD Turned?

I continue to lean towards the idea that the next GBPUSD dip is a buying opportunity. Of course, we need the dip! There is a lot in the way for possible resistance up to about 1.3670. The underside of the line off of the July and August lows is now (along with short term VWAP resistance…see 2 charts down), the year open is 1.3655, and the March and April lows are 1.3670. The short term wave count is shown below and 1.3530 remains initial support.
September 30, 2021

Market Update 9/29 – Huge Levels in DXY and EURUSD

NQ is nearing the trendline from the November low. This is also the center line of the channel from the September low (the upper parallel was resistance so it would be ‘natural’ for price to react to the center line) and the 38.2% retrace of the rally from the May low (14641.50). Bottom line, this is an important test for NQ and a break below would indicate an important behavior change.
September 24, 2021
USDJPY Breakout

Market Update 9/23 – USDJPY Breakout

USDJPY has broken out. If the breakout is ‘for real’, then 110.00 should provide support. A measured objective for the triangle is the 161.8% expansion of the widest part of the triangle, which is wave B. That calculation yields 114.21. However, the extreme coil in USDJPY suggests that a more aggressive target is appropriate.