February 26, 2021

Market Update 2/25 – Reversal Edition

EURUSD spiked into and reversed from the noted 1.2220. My view is that a 3 wave rally is complete from the February low and that either a 3 or 5 wave decline will draw price beneath the February low in order to complete the larger correction from the January high. Short term channel support for a bounce is about 1.2080.
February 22, 2021

Market Update: February 21

Crude made a weekly key reversal last week at a defined level (underside of the trendline off of the 2016 and 2018 lows). This is also the level that provided resistance in 2015 before the plunge into the early 2016 low. The trend in the inflation trade (basically USD down) is strong but crude could come off from the current level.
February 18, 2021

Market Update 2/17 – EURUSD 1.2000 is Big

1.2000ish remains a possible bounce level for EURUSD but I’d keep an eye on 1.2090-1.2100 for resistance now too. The level is defined by VWAPs from the November and February lows. These VWAPs were previously support. Now broken, watch the lines for resistance.
February 17, 2021

Market Update 2/16 – U.S. Notes (TLT) Nearing Possible Pivot

TLT has been tanking but is nearing a possible pivot from the center line of the channel from the March high. Daily RSI is 25.5. Magenta dots on the chart below show when RSI has been 25.5 or lower. Also, the 2016 is 143.36. This is an extremely important chart given the ‘inflation trade’ narrative. A bounce in TLT would indicate a pause/pullback in the in the nearly year long ‘inflation trade’.
February 13, 2021

Market Update 2/11 – Big Levels in Copper and Crude

EURUSD traded up to 1.2149 today so a near term top may be in place. The rally consist of 5 waves so expectations are for a drop and then another leg higher. My ‘guess’ is that a prolonged range is underway from the January high. Markets oscillate between trending and ranging periods and EURUSD has been trending higher since March 2020. A reset of sorts is needed in the form of a range. For now, pay attention to 1.2030/50 for support.
February 11, 2021

Market Update 2/10 – USD Support?

EURUSD traded in a very narrow range today and also made a doji (perfect doji…open and close are the same). Price tagged the month open too (1.2133). The 1/29 high and 50 day average are both 1.2155. Maybe we get a spike into that level before lower? I like leaving a short order at that level. 1.2050s may be support now.
February 10, 2021

Market Update 2/9 – Watch this Bitcoin Level!

If I look at Bitcoin as nothing more than a liquid asset and apply a channel to price history then 53k (give or take) is a level to pay attention to. The level is defined by the 75 line of the channel from the January 2015 low. As an aside, the Bitcoin bottom then was 1/15/2014…one day before the SNB let the floor go on EURCHF. I bought BTCUSD that day but then sold in May 2017. Worst exit ever? The fact that I think about that now is instructive from a timing standpoint. Anyway, the 25 line was support (highlighted) from May to October last year. As per median line symmetry, the 75 line is expected resistance…which is 53,000.
February 5, 2021

Market Update: February 4

EURUSD has reached the 1.1960s, which is marked by the top side of the 2008-2014 line and center line of the channel from the March low. It’s important! I’m ‘thinking’ some consolidation / bounce here before the level gives way. Recall that the rally from March is in 5 waves so a move back to the former 4th wave low at 1.1603 is suggested (as per wave guidelines…see the 4 hour chart below). Proposed resistance is now 1.2000/25. The top of this zone is the center line of the Schiff fork from the high (red line on the hourly chart…2 charts down). That line has been support/resistance for the last week.
February 2, 2021

Market Update 2/1 – Bullish USD Head and Shoulders Patterns

DXY is trading right at the neckline from a head and shoulders bottom pattern. The objective from the pattern is 92.80 (magenta line) but the former low at 91.75 is a possible pausing level. Ultimately, I’m looking towards the underside of former channel support. This is near 95 and in line with the March low, former 4th wave high, and 38.2% retrace of the decline from the March high (see weekly chart below).
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