AUDUSD is pressing against the median line again so a drop into the lower parallel probably will not occur. At this point, I’m on alert for ‘median line acceleration’. Strength above .7314 would complete a double bottom with a .7636 target. Proposed near term support now is .7230. RBA is tonight.
Today was a classic ‘sell the news’ day with the news being Russia attacking Ukraine. A more accurate term is ‘fade the news’. SPY carved a high volume reversal. We saw one of these at the 1/24 low. Prior to that, you’ve got to go back to 2018.
AUDUSD is pressing against the trendline from the October high. The center line of the short term bullish fork is also in the vicinity. A break above the trendline opens up the January high at .7314 and possibly the confluence of the upper parallel from the bullish fork and trendline from February 2021 near .7440.
EURUSD continues to meander sideways following last week’s rip but that should change with U.S. inflation data tomorrow. I’m wondering if the ‘ideal’ support is 1.1345. This is the top side of the trendline from May and trendline from the May low. It’s also the 38.2% retrace of the rally. A drop to there could complete 3 waves down from last week’s high.
UUP (USD ETF) completed a weekly volume reversal last week! Most signals since inception of the ETF have been identified important turns in the ETF and therefore the USD in general.
EURUSD has broken out and upside focus is squarely on 1.1660s. This is the 200 day average and August low. 1.1355/80s is well-defined for support now. The zone was resistance in December and is also the top side of the former resistance line that was just broken.
SPX has retraced 61.8% of the decline from the high. This is also ‘original’ trendline resistance. This is a perfect spot for at least an interim high. I’m looking lower towards 4494 or so (2022 VWAP) and possibly 4404.
EURUSD is unfolding in a clear impulsive manner. A small 5th wave may be underway now towards 1.1310 or so. Eventually, the top side of the trendline that originates at the January high (blue line) will be in line for support…maybe near 1.1200.
January produced some monthly reversals of note. SPY made a 1 bar monthly volume reversal. Notice that reversals also occurred in June/July 2007 (high) and October 2002 (low). There were failed signals however in 1997. Obviously, monthly signals may not be all that timely. These are ‘big picture’ observations. It’s important to understand in light of weekly bullish reversals in indices last week! These charts are shown below the monthly charts in this post.
Gold cut through the proposed support zone with ease has already reached the lower parallel of the Schiff fork from the August low. This is ‘last chance’ support for gold in my opinion. If price doesn’t hold here then there is no reason from my vantage point to consider the long side. 1830 is now resistance on a bounce.
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