Market Update 3/1 – Silver Breaks out from 13 Month Channel

SPOT SILVER DAILY

Silver broke above its 13 month channel today to join gold.  The top side of the channel at 24.87 is now support.  The objective is the 2021 high and full channel extension at 30.14.  Gold support should be 1922/28 now.

EURUSD 4 HOUR

For all I know, EURUSD is going to completely fall apart but that hasn’t happened yet.  In fact, today’s low is right at the top side of the trendline from the 2014 high…again!  The November and January lows were at this line so why not again?  Also, don’t forget that DXY is pressing against the 61.8% retrace of the decline from 2020 (see below) and DXY didn’t make a new high today.  The non-confirmation is subtle but a non-confirmation nonetheless.  Finally, FXE (euro ETF) made a high volume down day today.  If we get a high volume up day tomorrow then we’ll an objective reason to turn bullish.

DXY DAILY

AUDUSD 4 HOUR

I remain constructive AUDUSD but prefer to wait for either .7170 support or a clean break (daily close) above the median line before going long.  Stay tuned.

2/28 – AUDUSD is pressing against the median line again so a drop into the lower parallel probably will not occur.  At this point, I’m on alert for ‘median line acceleration’.  Strength above .7314 would complete a double bottom with a .7636 target.  Proposed near term support now is .7230.  RBA is tonight.

EURJPY DAILY

Pay attention to 127.10 or so in EURJPY.  This is the bottom of the channel from the June 2021 high and the September 2020 high. It’s also the lower parallel from the short term bearish Schiff fork (see below).  If price rebounds from the well-defined level then 129.40 is proposed resistance.  A break below would trigger a crash setup in which the underside of the lower parallel (magenta line) becomes resistance.

EURJPY 4 HOUR