News and Analysis

Scandex Technical Weekly: 10/23/2020

DXY WEEKLY

DXY Weekly

2011-2014 trendline support in DXY held in September.  Focus is higher as long as price is above that level.  96-97 is a general zone to look towards.  This zone includes the 200 week average and center line of the channel from the 2011 low.

EURUSD WEEKLY

EURUSD Weekly

EURUSD tagged the median line from the fork that originates off of the 2015 low.  The implication is twofold.  One, a temporary ceiling is in place.  Two, support likely registers on the same angle.  In this case, the 25 line was resistance and is now proposed support.  The line is currently about 1.1460, which is in line with the March high at 1.1495.

GBPUSD WEEKLY

GBPUSD Weekly

Since the end of Bretton Woods, long term GBPUSD moves have unfolded in 3 waves.  The drop into March may have put the finishing touches on the 3 wave decline from the 2007 high.  Focus is higher as long as that low holds.  A break above 1.3500 (2008 low, 2019 and 2020 highs) would be significant.

USDJPY WEEKLY

USDJPY Weekly

My view is that USDJPY completed a B wave triangle in 2020 and that wave C lower is underway towards 93.80-94.80.  This zone includes the June 2013 low and 61.8% retrace of the rally from the 2011 low.

AUDUSD WEEKLY

AUDUSD Weekly

Current AUDUSD price behavior is similar to that of 2002.  In both instances, price traded outside of the long term channel before dropping back into the channel.  If this continues, then AUDUSD comes back to .6700-.6800 (200 day average and 25 line within the channel…just like 2002) or so before finding the next low.  Seasonal tendencies are bearish through late November.

NZDUSD WEEKLY

NZDUSD Weekly

NZDUSD turned down from well-defined resistance in September.  Significant highs/lows since November 2017 and the 61.8% retrace of the decline from 2017 cluster at .6760-.6820.  Weakness is favored as long as price is below this zone.