April 22, 2021

Market Update 4/21 – Watch EURJPY Up Here!

I’ve been tracking EURJPY for a top as it approached the underside of the trendline from the 2012 low since February. On Tuesday, price spiked higher and reversed yet just missed the trendline. I ‘want’ to short. A break of the trendline from the November low is needed in order to trigger.
March 25, 2021

Market Update 3/24 – Great AUDJPY Short Setup

I love this AUDJPY short setup. Price has broken below the trendline from the November low. The underside of that line is now proposed resistance at 83.65/90. The 2/26 low is a bounce level at 81.98. Downside is the lower parallel from the bearish fork, which is significant (probably a 78 handle).
February 25, 2021

Market Update 2/24 – Extreme RSI Edition

AUDJPY is nearing the line off of the 2008 and 2016 lows. This line was support in October 2018 and resistance in early 2019 so watch for resistance there again. The line is about 85.80. Daily RSI is 83.6 (see the next 2 charts), which has only been reached once before, in December 2005. Price topped then and fell over 6 big figures in the next 2 weeks.
November 19, 2020

Market Update: November 19

Assets prices were down in early U.S. trading as the USD rallied but everything reversed course when the magical U.S. session got underway (stocks up, metals up, USD down, etc.). I still like gold lower but a bit more strength may be in order to test resistance near 1876.
November 17, 2020

Market Update: November 17

Bitcoin! Heads up because ‘digital gold’ is quickly approaching its all time high of 19666. Just under this level is a parallel that crosses major levels (mostly from 2015 to 2017). BTCUSD is a long term bull but I’m of the mind that we see a strong reaction from the parallel/all time high.
October 28, 2020

Market Update: October 28

Bitcoin made a volume reversal today. The high was right at the top of a channel too. The longer term chart is extremely bullish but price could drop to back to 10,000 or just below and still be bullish on a longer term basis. Near term, the BTCUSD reversal lower doesn’t bode well for ‘risk assets’ in general. No, BTCUSD is not a ‘safe haven’. It’s been moving with everything else all year. The ONLY safe haven in the current environment is the USD (maybe Yen and US treasuries too).
October 20, 2020

Market Update: October 20

DXY continues to fail at channel resistance and ABOVE 94 is still needed to signal that trend has shifted from sideways to up. Until/unless that happens, be aware of another test of the long term support line near 92.30 (daily reversal support). 2 equal legs down from the 9/25 high would be 92.18. A longer term chart is shown below in order to remind that important support is under the market.
October 13, 2020

Market Update: October 13

Gold has turned down from the 200 period average on the 4 hour chart, short term trendline, and 2011 high. Notice the action around the 2011 high over the last few months…gold remembers! Focus remains lower. 1760 appears critical for longer term support. This is the May high, near the 200 day average, and is a parallel that crosses highs and lows since August 2019.
October 1, 2020

Market Update: October 1 – Important Monthly USD Signal

It’s a new month which means we monthly volume signals, which are obviously rare. DX futures made a 2 bar monthly volume reversal. This means that August was a high volume up month and at least a 12 month closing high and September was a high volume down month (go here for more on volume indicators).
OPEN ACCOUNT