Market Update 1/25 – AUDJPY Setup in FOMC
SPOT GOLD DAILY
Gold is testing the noted 1850 and massive breakout level from the trendline that originates at the January 2021 high. This is also the median line from the bullish Schiff fork. A break above should lead to accelerated strength to 1920. If price pulls back then support should be 1820.
1/11 – Gold has ripped off of the61.8% retrace of the rally from the December low. I’m thinking that support is near 1814 (former resistance) now. Near term upside focus is 1850 or so with a break above there opening up the well-defined 1920.
USDJPY 4 HOUR
No change to USDJPY as the market waits for FOMC tomorrow. If the move is lower then resistance should be 114.30. The possibility of a gold breakout increases interest in accelerated USDJPY weakness.
1/24 – USDJPY focus remains on 112.50 or so. Price has been riding along the center line of the channel from the high so watch for resistance from the upper parallel near 114.40.
USDSEK DAILY
USDSEK has put in 2 ‘toppy’ candles the last 2 days. The level is well-defined as resistance from former support and the line that extends off of the March and November highs. I am looking for a turn lower, which ‘fits’ with EURUSD finally accelerating higher from the slow developing base that started in November.
AUDJPY DAILY
Keep an eye on AUDJPY. Monday’s low tagged the center line of the channel from the October high. The 25 line cuts through former lows and is in line with the well-defined 82.10…watch that for resistance. A break lower would target 78.84 and 76.80s, which is 2 legs down from the October high and the lower parallel of the channel. If price breaks below the center line then the underside of that line becomes resistance. Bottom line, there are solid reference points that should help return to the short side.
1/18 – AUDJPY confirmed the wedge on Friday and put in a bearish outside day today. I’m bearish and looking for weakness to at least the December low at 78.79. Proposed resistance is 82.60s (see below).
