July 8, 2021

Market Update 7/7 – EURUSD Testing Key Level

FOMC minutes were today and the ECB version is tomorrow. Price is just pips from the noted 1.1770 level (remember that’s a possible bounce level). Price is currently at VWAP from the 2020 low, which was support for the March low. Bottom line, EURUSD is into a zone that could lead to a strong bounce. If reversal evidence arises, then I’ll let you know and look to take action.
June 9, 2021

Market Update 6/8 – TLT Breakout (U.S. Bond Yield Breakdown)

TLT gapped higher through the median line today. This is typical price behavior around a median line. Focus is higher towards 148.90 (give or take). Remember, higher TLT means lower rates. This can (not always) correlate with risk aversion and lower Yen crosses in FX. 5/25 – After pulling back from the early April high, TLT found support at the 61.8% retrace of the rally. Price is again at the median line from the channel that originates at the March 2020 high. Markets tend to exhibit heightened volatility around median lines. I’m on the lookout for a surge higher. I’ll address implications for FX and equities if we get a strong TLT (bond) move.
May 26, 2021

Market Update 5/25 – CTAs Chasing USD Shorts Again

Not surprisingly, CTAs are chasing USD shorts again. Of course, this tends to happen just before a turn (then they chase the USD higher).
May 3, 2021

Market Update 5/2 – Monthly TLT Buy Signal

TLT completed a 2 bar monthly volume reversal in April. This is the 3rd bullish monthly signal ever. The first 2 (blue bars) nailed lows in August 2003 and July 2007.
March 1, 2021

Market Update 2/28 – Weekly Reversals!

AUDUSD followed through on its daily reversal last week and ended up with a weekly volume reversal. The only other weekly volume reversal occurred at the January 2004 high. Price is bouncing from the 50 day average in early week trading. Proposed resistance is .7887, which is the 61.8% retrace of the decline and the center line of the Schiff fork from the March low (see below chart). The next downside level of interest is the lower parallel. That is currently near .7500.
February 17, 2021

Market Update 2/16 – U.S. Notes (TLT) Nearing Possible Pivot

TLT has been tanking but is nearing a possible pivot from the center line of the channel from the March high. Daily RSI is 25.5. Magenta dots on the chart below show when RSI has been 25.5 or lower. Also, the 2016 is 143.36. This is an extremely important chart given the ‘inflation trade’ narrative. A bounce in TLT would indicate a pause/pullback in the in the nearly year long ‘inflation trade’.
December 13, 2020

Scandex Technical Weekly: 12/13/2020

Copper reached the noted 61.8% retrace at 3.6130 on Friday and reversed lower. The level is also reinforced by the upper parallel of the channel from the March low. Let’s see how action develops following Friday’s reversal but this is a great spot for a more important pivot. I’m also wondering if copper is ‘the canary in the coal mine’ regarding other assets (USD, stocks, BTCUSD, etc.).
November 9, 2020

Market Update 11/9 – Important Stock Market Signal

TLT has reached the long term parallel that was noted as the ‘critial level to pay attention to’ several weeks ago. Simply, this is a major decision point. Weakness below would be a game changer but support is support until broken so I’m thinking bounce.
October 22, 2020

Market Update: October 22

Bonds have been the big mover leading up to the U.S. election. TLT is under the 200 day average for the first time since December 2018. The next critical level to pay attention to is 153-154. This is the bottom of a short term channel, the June low, and the long term upper parallel from the channel that originates at the 2007 low (magenta line). The upper parallel nailed tops in 2012, 2015, and 2016 and the low in June. A long term chart is below. Expect the level to act as support BUT a break below would indicate a major behavior change in TLT (and bonds generally).