February 25, 2021

Market Update 2/24 – Extreme RSI Edition

AUDJPY is nearing the line off of the 2008 and 2016 lows. This line was support in October 2018 and resistance in early 2019 so watch for resistance there again. The line is about 85.80. Daily RSI is 83.6 (see the next 2 charts), which has only been reached once before, in December 2005. Price topped then and fell over 6 big figures in the next 2 weeks.
February 4, 2021

Market Update: February 2

AUDUSD responded to the 25 line of the Schiff fork from the March low. Recall that price topped at the 75 line (75 and 25 lines are magenta)…a perfect example of median line symmetry! Focus remain towards the lower parallel near .7413. Proposed resistance is .7640.
January 28, 2021

Market Update 1/27 – USD Breakout!?

USDOLLAR (quarter each of EUR, GBP, JPY, and AUD) has broken above the trendline that originates at the 11/12 high. The top side of that line is now proposed support near 11684. Upside focus is the 12/21 high at 11837. The level is reinforced by the median line from the fork that originates at the January 2017 high. A longer term chart is shown below for context.
January 19, 2021

Market Update: January 18

BTCUSD made a 2 bar weekly volume reversal last week. TradeStation historical is limited but this is the 2nd 2 bar weekly volume reversal since 2019. The 2019 signal identified an important top. Bitcoin news mentions have also gone parabolic (see below). This isn’t a surprise but it’s comforting to see the data. In other words, the speculative excess isn’t anecdotal.
December 23, 2020

Market Update: December 22

NZDJPY filled the previously uncovered close from May 2019 early this Month and is threatening to break down from a 4 week topping pattern now. The 200 week average has been resistance for years and is proving itself again at the current juncture. Near term focus is on former resistance at 72.00 with a much deeper drop (69.00ish) from the current level possible given the specter of 5 waves up from the March low.
December 21, 2020

Market Update: December 21

Copper continues to trade on both sides of the 61.8% retrace of the decline from 2011. I continue to follow near term levels from the channel off of the March low. The center line is about 3.50. That needs to break in order to suggest that copper is lower, probably until the lower parallel.
December 15, 2020

Market Update: December 14

Given the tag of a long term Fibonacci level in copper, I’m keeping a close eye on the near term picture. 3.45 is a level to know over the next day. This is the center line of the channel from the March low. A break below would indicate a near term behavior change and shift focus to the lower parallel. That is currently about 3.25. The line increases about .0050 a day.
December 13, 2020

Scandex Technical Weekly: 12/13/2020

Copper reached the noted 61.8% retrace at 3.6130 on Friday and reversed lower. The level is also reinforced by the upper parallel of the channel from the March low. Let’s see how action develops following Friday’s reversal but this is a great spot for a more important pivot. I’m also wondering if copper is ‘the canary in the coal mine’ regarding other assets (USD, stocks, BTCUSD, etc.).
December 2, 2020

Market Update: December 1

Copper is trading at its best level since March 2013 and has rallied 7 of the last 8 months. Be aware of the 61.8% retrace of the decline from the 2011 high at 3.6130 for possible resistance. Considering that ‘everything’ is going up against the USD, this level could prove important from a multi-asset perspective.