AUDUSD reversed sharply lower today after coming within pips of the 61.8% retrace of the drop from the February high and early January high. Near term downside focus is .7620. Proposed resistance is .7750.
USDCHF is into support and the level is loaded. The 38.2% retrace, 50 day average, March 2020 low, and November high span ..9180-.9210. I’m looking for a turn higher. Also, the decline from the top is impulsive so a corrective rally is expected. The trigger is above .9245
NZDUSD failed to turn lower from the line that extends off of the February and 3/18 highs. The structure from the February high is now a Schiff fork. The upper parallel intersects with the well-defined .7100 level and 200 period average on the 4 hour chart. If NZDUSD is lower, then .7100 is the price to short.
The poke above the 2018-2020 line was short lived as USDJPY has reversed all of last week’s gains. The failed break above this line makes for a bearish setup. Near term, watch for a bounce near 108.80 and for resistance near 109.85-110.00. I favor shorts into the proposed resistance zone.
EURUSD broke below the center line of the channel from the March 2020 low and that center line is now proposed resistance if reached along with former support in the 1.2020/60 zone. The next 2 downside levels of interest are 1.1845 and 1.1600. The first level is 2 equal legs down from the high. The lower level is the 1.618 extension and the former 4th wave low (November low).
NZDUSD has entered a massive zone (.7370-.7550). The bottom of the zone is defined by the November 2011 low and where the rally from the March 2020 low divides into Fibonacci proportion (2nd leg of the rally equals 61.8% of the first leg). The top of the zone is defined by the July 2017 high (also the 61.8% retrace of the decline from the 2011 high). RBNZ is tonight, which brings forth the potential for volatility and a reversal (or the beginning of a reversal process) from significant price levels.
1.2000ish remains a possible bounce level for EURUSD but I’d keep an eye on 1.2090-1.2100 for resistance now too. The level is defined by VWAPs from the November and February lows. These VWAPs were previously support. Now broken, watch the lines for resistance.
EURUSD traded in a very narrow range today and also made a doji (perfect doji…open and close are the same). Price tagged the month open too (1.2133). The 1/29 high and 50 day average are both 1.2155. Maybe we get a spike into that level before lower? I like leaving a short order at that level. 1.2050s may be support now.
USDOLLAR (quarter each of EUR, GBP, JPY, and AUD) has broken above the trendline that originates at the 11/12 high. The top side of that line is now proposed support near 11684. Upside focus is the 12/21 high at 11837. The level is reinforced by the median line from the fork that originates at the January 2017 high. A longer term chart is shown below for context.
NZDUSD has been pressing into the noted center line (red line) from the channel off of the March low the last few days. Ideally, the next lower gets underway immediately. If that happens, then the 25 line is a level of interest near .7115 but the ‘real’ level of interest is the lower parallel near .7000. Another reason to ‘like’ the short side right now is that VWAP from the high and 2021 VWAP continue to act as resistance (see below)