DXY topped RIGHT at the parallel that has been highlighted for weeks. Also, the full extension of the channel from the May 2021 low is on the high. The upper parallel (magenta line) from that channel is now proposed support near 101.20/30 over the next week. 103.90-104.20 is proposed support.
January produced some monthly reversals of note. SPY made a 1 bar monthly volume reversal. Notice that reversals also occurred in June/July 2007 (high) and October 2002 (low). There were failed signals however in 1997. Obviously, monthly signals may not be all that timely. These are ‘big picture’ observations. It’s important to understand in light of weekly bullish reversals in indices last week! These charts are shown below the monthly charts in this post.
SPX printed 4447 after the close. This is a good spot for a bounce, especially given elevated volumes in SPY and QQQ today. The red bars on the charts below indicate when the volume is at least 1.5 x the 20 day average at a 50 day low. The market usually bounces following one of these high volume days, although there are of course exceptions. My ‘favored’ view is that price bounces but that the bounce fails near 4530.
Another month is in the books and SPX continues to trade ‘heavily’ under the its ‘meridian line’. An inside month formed in October. Recall that September was an outside bearish month (see the close up view below). Of note is XHB (homebuilders), which made a monthly volume reversal in October (see below). Is this one of the last segments of the market to put in a top?
My working assumption is that a B wave triangle ended today at 1975.20 (exactly the 8/3 low) in gold. I am bearish against today’s high and looking for weakness lower in a C wave towards 1800 or so by the end of the month.
QQQ has broken down and the same levels are in focus that were noted yesterday (text below). All I’m adding is that if price bounces from here (a gap up on news tomorrow for example) then 279 is proposed resistance.
ES made a bearish weekly volume reversal last week. Since the 2009 low, there have been 3 other bearish reversals and 1 bullish reversal. Reversals in 2010 and early 2018 identified interim highs.
Be aware of the 261.8% expansion of the 2000-2002 decline in QQQ at 283.50 as potential resistance. That’s about 3% higher. The first 2 Fibonacci levels, 127.2% and 161.8%, presented several opportunities (close up view is below). The equivalent level in the Nasdaq Composite Index is 11643.40, which is 4.6% higher than today’s close (2 charts down).
Today was the first day since the rally off of the March low that QQQ made a lower pivot high with 5 day strength. That means that there are 5 days on each side of the high.