Kiwi has traded in a textbook fashion over the last week or so. Resistance at the channel high…hard break of the center line…center line acting as resistance…and finally the lower channel line holding.
DXY turned sharply higher on Friday but gave back a good portion of those gains today. The rally counts in 5 waves (impulsive) which suggests at least one more leg up while price remains above Friday’s high. 90.79 is proposed support if price slips a bit lower.
Silver has been trending lower since August 6th and put in a large bearish outside day on Monday. Focus is towards the lower channel line near 20.65, which is currently just above the 200 day average. Resistance should be about 24.56 (see 4 hour chart below). A downside bias is reinforced by the fact that VWAP from the high was resistance on SLV on Monday (see 2 charts down).
DX futures made a 2 bar monthly volume reversal in September. This means that August was a high volume up month and at least a 12 month closing high and September was a high volume down month. This is the first bullish signal since December 2010. UUP ( Dollar ETF) also made a monthly volume reversal. Price history begins in 2007 but this is the 4th bullish reversal since then. The prior 3 nailed major turns. The 2 bearish reversals also nailed turns.
Silver broke the trendline from the March low last week and is bouncing from short term oversold conditions. It would be quite a bounce but the underside of the noted trendline intersects the well-defined 26.10/28 zone late this week.
Gold edged higher in early Tuesday trading, lifted by a weaker US dollar as investors eye the Federal Reserve meeting set to conclude on Wednesday. Meanwhile, inceased risk appetite and robust equity markets threaten to keep a lid on the yellow metal's price.