USDOLLAR spiked lower on the last day of the month but recovered to finish the day virtually unchanged. Price is RIGHT at 11950. In fact, today’s low was one tick above the April high (former resistance is now support) and just above the 50 day average too. My view is that the USD is still in an uptrend. The question is whether or not the dip within the uptrend is complete. Today’s action (long lower wick into a well-defined level) is a good way to make the next pivot low. Also, 4 hour RSI continues to bottom above 30 (see below). Remember, this is characteristic of a ‘bullish RSI profile’.
.7100 might be in play again for NZDUSD. The level has been a pivot since December. It’s also near the 25 line within the channel from the February high. Since the 75 line was support (twice), we should expect resistance near the 25 line (median line symmetry!). .7100 is also the 200 day average.
GBPUSD hasn’t quite reached 1.4000 (high today was 1.3982) but the upper parallel was reached. I am on reversal watch in Cable right now…especially given bearish seasonal tendencies over the next few weeks (see below).
FOMC minutes were today and the ECB version is tomorrow. Price is just pips from the noted 1.1770 level (remember that’s a possible bounce level). Price is currently at VWAP from the 2020 low, which was support for the March low. Bottom line, EURUSD is into a zone that could lead to a strong bounce. If reversal evidence arises, then I’ll let you know and look to take action.
Copper reached the noted 61.8% retrace at 3.6130 on Friday and reversed lower. The level is also reinforced by the upper parallel of the channel from the March low. Let’s see how action develops following Friday’s reversal but this is a great spot for a more important pivot. I’m also wondering if copper is ‘the canary in the coal mine’ regarding other assets (USD, stocks, BTCUSD, etc.).
Gold is one of the only things I’ve gotten right recently. Watch for resistance and a reaction near 1849. If price pulls back from there then I’d keep 1800 in mind for support and a higher low against the 11/30 low.
TLT has reached the long term parallel that was noted as the ‘critial level to pay attention to’ several weeks ago. Simply, this is a major decision point. Weakness below would be a game changer but support is support until broken so I’m thinking bounce.
Another month is in the books and SPX continues to trade ‘heavily’ under the its ‘meridian line’. An inside month formed in October. Recall that September was an outside bearish month (see the close up view below). Of note is XHB (homebuilders), which made a monthly volume reversal in October (see below). Is this one of the last segments of the market to put in a top?
USDOLLAR turned up from the top side of the neckline on Thursday but returned to the neckline today. Failure to turn up now risks a failed breakout, which would be viewed in a bearish light.
We looked at DXY yesterday, remember that the neckline is 93.50 and proposed support for that index. USDOLLAR is nearly identical with the neckline near 12040. I’m in the re-test of the breakout level (neckline) and then higher for the USD.