Gold is one of the only things I’ve gotten right recently. Watch for resistance and a reaction near 1849. If price pulls back from there then I’d keep 1800 in mind for support and a higher low against the 11/30 low.
11/29 – Gold has reached the long cited target/support of 1780. I am now neutral. If reversal evidence arises, then I’ll let you know. Sit tight for now. Be aware that 2020 VWAP for GLD is slightly lower (see below).
USD headlines are dire again. This is not to say that the USD isn’t in a downtrend but when one of the most popular articles about the USD is a prediction that the USD is about to have it’s ‘worst year ever’, it’s time to prepare for at least a counter trend reaction.
Here is another headline from Yahoo Finance ‘predicting’ additional weakness. As I explained in Sentiment in the Forex Market, widely read articles with predictive headlines tend to be the most reliable. Why? A reporter’s job is to produce popular content and a reporter is a microcosm of the general public. If the headline contains a prediction, then the reporter (and public) is extremely confident in the direction of the trend. Extreme confidence in the trend, aka extrapolation of the trend, occurs towards the end of the move.
There is another Fibonacci relationship for EURUSD at 1.2123. This is the 127.2% extension of wave 4 (we’re basically there now). If EURUSD fails to turn down from nearby then I don’t see much in the way for resistance until ‘original slope’ parallel resistance, which is currently about 1.2300. Price put in a high volume hourly reversal during active hours this morning but price has not followed through. That chart is below.
12/1 – EURUSD is above the 2008-2014 line and again testing the median line from the longer term bullish structure. The current level is defined by the 2012 low and 2017 high. A proposed wave count is shown below. Equality between waves 5 and 1 are common in Elliott. That occurs at 1.2112.
GBPUSD made a 2 day volume reversal today from a 1 year closing high. The last bearish one was the day of the January 2018 high. Signals are shown here for the past 5 years. Importantly, price is pressing against the massive 1.3500 level (see weekly chart below). Watch for 1.3390 resistance (high volume level). Under 1.3290 would warrant a short position.
Expanding on yesterday’s Kiwi comments, a drop under .7000 would suggest that a top is in place. Until then, continue to focus on .7152. It’s worth noting that an 8 hour volume reversal triggered today (see below).
12/1 – NZDUSD is trading at the June 2018 high. The 50% retrace of the decline from the 2014 high is .7152 (also the March 2018 low). Watch that for possible resistance, especially because daily RSI is currently 77.65. Magenta dots indicate when RSI has been that high. The chart below shows instances since 2007.