Market Update: December 3

SPOT SILVER 4 HOUR

Silver has been trading within a downward sloping channel since the August high.  The 11/30 low was right at VWAP from the March low (see SLV chart below), so bullish risk is against Monday’s low.  Near term, watch for resistance near 25.07/56.  Eventually, focus will be on identifying a higher low against Monday’s low.

SLV 4 HOUR

DXY 4 HOUR

The USD destruction continues.  Wave 5 within the 5 wave cycle from the March high would equal wave 1 at 90.02.  If that doesn’t hold then 89ish is in focus and a major level to watch for support.

12/1 – Watch 90.90 in DXY.  This is the 2017 low and March 2018 high.  If that fails to hold, then there is nothing until weekly reversal support at 89.08.  A rally from here (or 90.90) wouldn’t be a shock however given the median line from the Schiff fork off of the March high.  This line was support in October.

BRITISH POUND FUTURES 8 HOUR

Cable tested 1.3500 today before pulling back.  Another volume reversal triggered today as well…this one an 8 hour signal.  There is no change to tactics…I am still looking to short below 1.3290.

12/2 – GBPUSD made a 2 day volume reversal today from a 1 year closing high.  The last bearish one was the day of the January 2018 high.  Signals are shown here for the past 5 years.  Importantly, price is pressing against the massive 1.3500 level (see weekly chart below).  Watch for 1.3390 resistance (high volume level).  Under 1.3290 would warrant a short position.

NZDUSD DAILY

NZDUSD is little changed for the last 2 days.  Daily RSI is now above 80.  Previous instances are shown with magenta dots on the chart.  Tactically, a drop under .7000 is still needed in order to establish a short against the high.

12/2 – Expanding on yesterday’s Kiwi comments, a drop under .7000 would suggest that a top is in place.  Until then, continue to focus on .7152.  It’s worth noting that an 8 hour volume reversal triggered today (see below).

USDTRY 4 HOUR

Continue to watch for support near 7.7145 in USDTRY.  Weakness since 11/24 remains proposed wave B within a 3 wave rally from the 11/20 low.

11/29 – My view is that the rally and drop since 11/19 are waves A and B of a 3 wave correction.  Wave C should get underway either now or from near 7.7145 (61.8% retrace).