Silver has been trading within a downward sloping channel since the August high. The 11/30 low was right at VWAP from the March low (see SLV chart below), so bullish risk is against Monday’s low. Near term, watch for resistance near 25.07/56. Eventually, focus will be on identifying a higher low against Monday’s low.
The USD destruction continues. Wave 5 within the 5 wave cycle from the March high would equal wave 1 at 90.02. If that doesn’t hold then 89ish is in focus and a major level to watch for support.
12/1 – Watch 90.90 in DXY. This is the 2017 low and March 2018 high. If that fails to hold, then there is nothing until weekly reversal support at 89.08. A rally from here (or 90.90) wouldn’t be a shock however given the median line from the Schiff fork off of the March high. This line was support in October.
Cable tested 1.3500 today before pulling back. Another volume reversal triggered today as well…this one an 8 hour signal. There is no change to tactics…I am still looking to short below 1.3290.
12/2 – GBPUSD made a 2 day volume reversal today from a 1 year closing high. The last bearish one was the day of the January 2018 high. Signals are shown here for the past 5 years. Importantly, price is pressing against the massive 1.3500 level (see weekly chart below). Watch for 1.3390 resistance (high volume level). Under 1.3290 would warrant a short position.
NZDUSD is little changed for the last 2 days. Daily RSI is now above 80. Previous instances are shown with magenta dots on the chart. Tactically, a drop under .7000 is still needed in order to establish a short against the high.
12/2 – Expanding on yesterday’s Kiwi comments, a drop under .7000 would suggest that a top is in place. Until then, continue to focus on .7152. It’s worth noting that an 8 hour volume reversal triggered today (see below).
Continue to watch for support near 7.7145 in USDTRY. Weakness since 11/24 remains proposed wave B within a 3 wave rally from the 11/20 low.
11/29 – My view is that the rally and drop since 11/19 are waves A and B of a 3 wave correction. Wave C should get underway either now or from near 7.7145 (61.8% retrace).