Scandex Technical Weekly: 12/06/2020

EURO FUTURES DAILY

Overly USD bearish headlines continue to appear.  The headline below is from CNN.

Why the US dollar could be the big loser of 2021

Interestingly, a daily volume reversal triggered on Friday from a 2 year high in EURUSD.  There have only been 4 instances of this happening since inception of the euro (see chart below).  If a top is in place at Friday’s high, then impulsive weakness likely extends towards 1.2040 before a bounce.  That bounce would present the opportunity to short (see 2 charts down).  Wait and see.

12/2 – There is another Fibonacci relationship for EURUSD at 1.2123.  This is the 127.2% extension of wave 4 (we’re basically there now).  If EURUSD fails to turn down from nearby then I don’t see much in the way for resistance until ‘original slope’ parallel resistance, which is currently about 1.2300.  Price put in a high volume hourly reversal during active hours this morning but price has not followed through.  That chart is below.

EURO FUTURES DAILY

EURUSD HOURLY

BRITISH POUND FUTURES DAILY

GBPUSD also made a daily volume reversal (see colored bars) on Friday.  Importantly, this occurred from the massive 1.3500 level.  Near term, price is sitting on a median line that has previously provided support.  A break here shifts focus to about 1.3320.  A bounce from there would present the opportunity to short.  Bigger picture (see 2 charts down), eventual support may be just under 1.2700.

12/3 – Cable tested 1.3500 today before pulling back.  Another volume reversal triggered today as well…this one an 8 hour signal.  There is no change to tactics…I am still looking to short below 1.3290.

GBPUSD 4 HOUR

GBPUSD WEEKLY

USDJPY 4 HOUR

USDJPY weakness from the March high counts as a triple zigzag correction under Elliott principles.  Notice how each leg of the correction is in 3 waves.  The trigger for longs is the trendline from the 6/30 high.  That line is about 104.90.

SPOT GOLD 4 HOUR

Gold has traded into proposed resistance.  I’m ‘thinking’ pullback here with proposed support near 1800.

12/2 – Gold is one of the only things I’ve gotten right recently.  Watch for resistance and a reaction near 1849.  If price pulls back from there then I’d keep 1800 in mind for support and a higher low against the 11/30 low.

EURCAD WEEKLY

EURCAD has been trading against a 22 year trendline since March.  Last week’s high was right on that line.  Near term resistance for a short entry is near 1.5540 (see below).

EURCAD 4 HOUR