Overly USD bearish headlines continue to appear. The headline below is from CNN.
Interestingly, a daily volume reversal triggered on Friday from a 2 year high in EURUSD. There have only been 4 instances of this happening since inception of the euro (see chart below). If a top is in place at Friday’s high, then impulsive weakness likely extends towards 1.2040 before a bounce. That bounce would present the opportunity to short (see 2 charts down). Wait and see.
12/2 – There is another Fibonacci relationship for EURUSD at 1.2123. This is the 127.2% extension of wave 4 (we’re basically there now). If EURUSD fails to turn down from nearby then I don’t see much in the way for resistance until ‘original slope’ parallel resistance, which is currently about 1.2300. Price put in a high volume hourly reversal during active hours this morning but price has not followed through. That chart is below.
GBPUSD also made a daily volume reversal (see colored bars) on Friday. Importantly, this occurred from the massive 1.3500 level. Near term, price is sitting on a median line that has previously provided support. A break here shifts focus to about 1.3320. A bounce from there would present the opportunity to short. Bigger picture (see 2 charts down), eventual support may be just under 1.2700.
12/3 – Cable tested 1.3500 today before pulling back. Another volume reversal triggered today as well…this one an 8 hour signal. There is no change to tactics…I am still looking to short below 1.3290.
USDJPY weakness from the March high counts as a triple zigzag correction under Elliott principles. Notice how each leg of the correction is in 3 waves. The trigger for longs is the trendline from the 6/30 high. That line is about 104.90.
Gold has traded into proposed resistance. I’m ‘thinking’ pullback here with proposed support near 1800.
12/2 – Gold is one of the only things I’ve gotten right recently. Watch for resistance and a reaction near 1849. If price pulls back from there then I’d keep 1800 in mind for support and a higher low against the 11/30 low.
EURCAD has been trading against a 22 year trendline since March. Last week’s high was right on that line. Near term resistance for a short entry is near 1.5540 (see below).
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